As excruciating as it was getting to the "X" spot, it was pretty obvious there was weakness in store. The huge question now is how much weakness? I already went long 20 /ES today just to hedge my 45 put positions (!) in my personal account. If we start getting some strength, I'd like to participate in it. I don't think today is going to clear out all the air in the market. I'm not ready to be an aggressive buyer yet.
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
The General Expectation
EUR/USD Near Important Support
Good Morning, Bears!
Well, it's been a long time since we've been greeted with this kind of pre-open. FAZ is up 15%, SRS is up over 8%. I went through hundreds of charts last night and have about 50 prospective bear positions and – – – for later, when things have been beaten down a bit more – – 50 prospective bullish positions. Let's get it in gear!
Now It Can Be Told
In my home office is a thick white binder labeled Tim's Trading Tome. It's packed with all kinds of customized charts, trading ideas, interesting articles, old issues of EWT, and so forth.
One item I put together with my scribbled writing back in mid-October 2008 was this interesting chart. I'm not displaying it directly in this post, since the file is pretty big. But as you can see, I was putting together my own conjecture about where the market would be heading in the coming years. My projection for this phase of the low, 711.50, was off, but the wiggles that got us there were reasonably accurate.
The path I drew up to 1150 on the S&P (which will probably be more like 1050 to 1100 given the recent delta) isn't intended to be an accurate representation of how we get there. I am simply looking for major turning points, so I'm drawing pretty much straight lines between them.
The basis for these projections was the 1938-1942 bear market which, believe me, I am not following as the gospel. It's just one of the vectors I am considering. This little sketch wasn't meant to be prophecy but instead was a simple mental exercise. Projections through March, however, weren't too bad.
