In my home office is a thick white binder labeled Tim's Trading Tome. It's packed with all kinds of customized charts, trading ideas, interesting articles, old issues of EWT, and so forth.
One item I put together with my scribbled writing back in mid-October 2008 was this interesting chart. I'm not displaying it directly in this post, since the file is pretty big. But as you can see, I was putting together my own conjecture about where the market would be heading in the coming years. My projection for this phase of the low, 711.50, was off, but the wiggles that got us there were reasonably accurate.
The path I drew up to 1150 on the S&P (which will probably be more like 1050 to 1100 given the recent delta) isn't intended to be an accurate representation of how we get there. I am simply looking for major turning points, so I'm drawing pretty much straight lines between them.
The basis for these projections was the 1938-1942 bear market which, believe me, I am not following as the gospel. It's just one of the vectors I am considering. This little sketch wasn't meant to be prophecy but instead was a simple mental exercise. Projections through March, however, weren't too bad.
