Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
In spite of all the ongoing lunacy and manipulation, it seems one truth that seems to be recognized is that the United States is, ummm, really not going to be able to pay all these trillions of dollars of debt off. So the TBT keeps marching higher. The next big test is whether it can fully close the gap at 55.70
Thank you, TBT, for providing a bright spot in an otherwise very grim day!
As a salve for all the frustration we Slopers are experiencing, I'll share with you a little article I tore out of Barron's this weekend.
Apparently, once a year, the hot-shot hedge fund managers reveal one or two of their best ideas to the public. Here are how some of the greatest minds on Wall Street did last year……..
So we've got a recommendation to buy FRE at 25.73, buy C at 21.12, buy AIB at 41.29, and so on. Many of these ideas lost over 50%, with some of them losing over 90%.
The only good recommendation was a short (naturally) from David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital. He suggested shorting LEH at 36.11, which fell 99.8% (in typical Barron's style, they don't bother showing what the return on this would be, instead simply showing the nominal percentage change, which is profoundly misleading given the fact it was, umm, a short. But that's Barron's for ya).
Anyway, as you can see, even the big boys have it rough (unless they're so big that they basically wind up running the market, like our dear friends at GS).
The two words most often cited when people write me to say "thanks" for Slope are honesty and transparency. I am pleased people feel that way, because I do try to be really forthright about my trading, my wins, my losses, and my mistakes. The "easy" thing to do – – particularly as I contemplate new directions for myself later this year – – would be to paint a picture of just knocking balls out of the park, but that would be both immoral and unhelpful. I'm just as interested in trumpeting my screw-ups as I am my victories.
So let me state two facts very clearly:
Isn't that awful? But the big difference is that last Spring I was getting absolutely mauled by a market similar to this, whereas this Spring I've held my ground. I have fought like hell to hold that ground, but I've held it. So we can be thankful for small blessings, I suppose.
That isn't to say I'm not sick and tired of this market. It's downright disgusting. But I'm holding my ground, even though it's a horrible battle.
One chart shows how agonizing this market has become for chartists – here's the UWM over just the past couple of weeks.
So over this short amount of time, we have……
I mean, excuse me, but Jesus H. Christ, could someone make up their minds? Oh, and if you're about to piously comment, "Cash is a position too", please slap yourself for me. Thanks.
Anyway, I imagine I'm not the only one going crazy with this market. I'm not winning. I'm not losing. I'm just going crazy with this crap. It's just that simple.
Good morning, everyone, and welcome back from a three-day weekend.
While trying to think of something to write about, I glanced at some gold-related charts and had concerns. Although I am increasingly enamored of DBC and its prospects (which is commodities-related, and not focused on precious metals), my commodity-oriented trades related to precious metals seem far more vulnerable. Take a look at these:
I think that ultimately these charts may fight their way through the overhead supply, but I'm not sure if my capital is best allocated somewhere else waiting for a better entry price. The general notion that inflation is inevitable and that the only "real" money with any sustainable value (gold) will ultimately win the day resonates with me, but charts are my principal basis for decision-making, and they have to take precedent.
My capriciousness with respect to precious metals hasn't served me well recently, since by and large trying to time entries and exits seems to be inferior to simply riding out the waves and riding the presumably inevitable rise higher. I'll at least not "ditch" the positions and instead reassess my stops to what seem like technically sensible levels, which is what I'm supposed to be doing in the first place anyway!
