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Not exactly an electrifying day, was it? I'm very lightly positioned right now. Across all my portfolios, I've got 95 positions, which for me is practically "flat". I'm not going to rush into the market until it has a clearer direction.

To my mind, that direction is going to be very easy to see, but unfortunately only after certain upper and lower boundaries are breached. Below I've put three key charts – the NASDAQ Composite, the OIH ETF (energy), and the S&P 500 index. I've put two numbers – the bullish threshold and the bearish threshold – for each one. Once these figures are exceeded, it will be a lot more obvious which way the market is headed. I've also tinted in the bars from where I've drawn these figures.




It's interesting to note that, over the past seven calendar quarters, six of them were down, and only the most recent one was up. My feeling is that September/October is going to provide fantastic fireworks for the bears. Until then, it's just one day at a time.