What We Learned: Zilch

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I really don't mean to be in whine mode, but that's how I'm feeling. Well, not so much "whine"; that's too high-pitched. Just ticked off. Sort of like I keep working on the same sand castle and the same goon keep coming around every couple of weeks and stomping on it. I'd like to shoot the goon in the head.

Thumbing through the Times, I've got to say even someone as cynical as me is stunned at how short this nation's memory is. A few short months ago, the investment banks were on their knees, begging for the country to bail them out. Well, they got bailed out. And now they're paying record bonuses again. They are engaging in precisely the same kind of behavior they did in 2007. They haven't changed one iota.

Well, one thing has changed. They've learned that they have the ultimate backstop: the entire country. Heads, they win; tails, we lose. Simple as that.

And now there's talk of a "super-rally" that is about to take place. I have trouble seeing that. What I do know is that I'm paying more attention to OIH now than just about anything else – even the /ES. It is still in the throes of what I consider a major topping formation. That could well lead the rest of the market down.

When I feel lost like this, I start fresh and look at all my charts. I'm going to do just that and try to get my head screwed on right. This week has erased all the hard work I put into July so far.