Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Fed Statement

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Release Date: August 12, 2009

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in
June suggests that economic activity is leveling out. Conditions in
financial markets have improved further in recent weeks. Household
spending has continued to show signs of stabilizing but remains
constrained by ongoing job losses, sluggish income growth, lower
housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses are still cutting back on
fixed investment and staffing but are making progress in bringing
inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. Although economic
activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee continues
to anticipate that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and
institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will
contribute to a gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth in a
context of price stability.

The prices of energy and other commodities have risen of late.
However, substantial resource slack is likely to dampen cost pressures,
and the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some
time.

In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will employ all
available tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price
stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal
funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that
economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of
the federal funds rate for an extended period. As previously announced,
to provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to
improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal
Reserve will purchase a total of up to $1.25 trillion of agency
mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt by the
end of the year. In addition, the Federal Reserve is in the process of
buying $300 billion of Treasury securities. To promote a smooth
transition in markets as these purchases of Treasury securities are
completed, the Committee has decided to gradually slow the pace of
these transactions and anticipates that the full amount will be
purchased by the end of October. The Committee will continue to
evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities
in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial
markets. The Federal Reserve is monitoring the size and composition of
its balance sheet and will make adjustments to its credit and liquidity
programs as warranted.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke,
Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles
L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Daniel
K. Tarullo; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.

Misspent Youth

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There was a time in human history – – ending in the early 1980s, I suppose – – when Saturday morning television belonged to the children.

As a child in the tasteless 1970s, I spent my share of time in front of the TV watching the low-budget junk they churned out. At the time, I loved it, but it retrospect, it's pretty embarrassing. Take a look at this gem, which was actually one of the better shows of the day………..

A few things occur to me while seeing this:

  • I wonder if the Evangelical crowd freaked out that the Greek "gods" were Billy's source of his superpowers. You just know at some point there must have been a letter campaign.
  • Was a hemisphere of colorful lights really the best user interface to the immortals?
  • During the moral lesson, is there a reason Captain Marvel's jaws are clenched together? Are they wired shut? Or does he simply want to show us his Pepsodent smile?

It's a pity my brain is filled with the likes of this – – to say nothing of the other shows of this era – – instead of more important matters.

IMHO FOMC STFU

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A couple of things occur to me about the comments section: (1) there are probably eight people that make up 90% of the comments (2) given the rowdy nature of comments in the market's current state, God help the Internet if and when we actually have an honest-to-God tear 'em up bear market on our hands. This place will be utter pandemonium.

I seem to have gotten my /ES mojo back, since I'm able to hop in and out of positions with pretty consistent profits. The profits are tres petite, but they are profits nonetheless. For instance, during the dreaded 90 minute end-of-day silliness, I managed to bag three-quarters of a point on 20 /ES. Pretty sad, ain't it? But I'll gladly take the $750 instead of a loss, which is what I would be facing if I simply held on, thinking we'd get our typical afternoon pop. The bulls completely dropped the ball on this one, and as I type this, we are, for the zillionth time, ambling at 991.

Wednesday is going to be the typically interesting FOMC announcement day – – the 5th in a series of 8 scheduled meetings this year (the next one is September 23rd). As I say every time one of these comes around, get ready for the standard EKG-like tremors on your streaming charts.

But here's the key point – – I think this is a real fork in the road for July 8th to August 7th rally, because after the gymnastics are done tomorrow, it will either have been (1) a little dip prior to the resumption of the uptrend; or (2) a decent inflection point prompting a continuation of the selling we've seen over the past couple of days.

Take our old friend FAS, for example. As charts go, this looks pretty bullish:

0811-faz

But does that tinted area represent a pullback to create a safer entry for long positions, or will FAS suffer the same fate as its evil twin FAZ and simply having presented a false breakout before retching?

0811-fas

My positions remain steadfastly bearish. I did lighten up today by about half a million, but I'm still in a pure series of bearish positions, with the exception of my TOMO and GLG longs. I'll see you tomorrow morning!