What’s a Reasonable Target?

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Let's say – just for the sake of argument – that the market actually gets a little bit of softness that lasts for more than 17 minutes. How far down will it go?

I'm personally using the 950 level on the /ES as my target. I have a couple of reasons for this. First, that represents an important prior breakout level; and second, it is approximately where the fan line is (which is the same fan line as the one representing support from the oh-so-painful failed H&S pattern).


Is that the lowest it would go? Well, obviously I'm counting on much lower prices before the year is over, but I'm not sure if we'll make another dim-witted lunge higher (to…….1050? 1150? 1200?) or slip below the fan line and start withering away. Based on the manipulations from our dear friends at Goldman Sachs, I'd lean toward another lunge higher