A Heartbreaking Work of Staggering Genius

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Even though it's very late here, I feel way, way too guilty about leaving a lame-o post as my final post of the day. I really did put together a nice video, but it's lost to the dustbin of history.

I will share with you, then, my rationale for my "bold prediction" last week. Let's start with a snapshot of some market action from 1938. You should click on this image to get a better view.


I have hand-written a series of letters on this graph. The letters don't have any special meaning; they just provide a means of sequencing important highs and lows.

Now let's take a look at the present day, with the graph terminating on September 11, when I did this Starbucks Study:


What I've been focused on is the move from "M" to "N". I didn't know when "M" would be complete, but I will say this: in percentage terms, today marks precisely the same kind of move in 1938 of "L" through "M". If this is the case, the move to "N" would actually end at about 975, as opposed to the 950 I mentioned last week. But, hell, that's still nearly 100 points, and I'd gladly take it.

Some folks – mole in particular – like to utter the phrase, "history doesn't repeat; it rhymes." I'm not sure precisely how I'm supposed to apply that to real life, but – meh – I'm looking for things to repeat.