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Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
One Sad Stock
If there's one stock that can be credited (or blamed) for kicking off the mega-rally in 2009, it is Citigroup (C). Remember the infamous March 10, 2009 memo from Pandit stating how they were profitable again? In the span of just eight days, pretty much the entire rally that C enjoyed for 2009 transpired.
Since then, it's been nothing but a grind. Indeed, the current price is lower than C was on March 19th! So even though most stocks – and certainly banks – have suckled at the breast of government cash for this year and risen handsomely for it, C seems to be the weakling. If things ever get soft again (and I am starting to get weary of waiting), I'd guess they're pretty much doomed.
Commodity Lifts Ahead?
It seems that commodities could be in for a brief lift; here are a couple of long ideas:
David Byrne, Where Are You?
The one and only time I saw David Byrne live was in 1991, when he performed his new album, The Forest, in Saratoga, California. As a card-carrying Talking Heads and David Byrne (solo artist) fan, I was looking forward to something amazing. Boy, was I disappointed. He had evidently reached that stage of success and fame where he could crank out stuff that sucked, and people would come to see him anyway (think of every single thing R.E.M. did after 1990, and you'll get the picture).
As he was standing there on stage, literally howling like a dog, some brave soul in the audience yelled out what everyone else was thinking: "David Byrne, where are you?"
I felt a tinge of the same thing when a Sloper wrote me this morning with the same question (well, not directed at David Byrne, but at me; but you probably surmised that already). The inclusion of guest content – more prevalent on some days than others – has bugged some people.
As I've said, I welcome the content, mainly because it gives your long-suffering host a bit of a break, having done this for nearly five years now. Plus, let's face it, some of the guest content is really good.
In any case, I've been working on a redesign of the site which I hope to introduce this month. It's pretty spiffy-looking, and, if all goes as planned, you'll be able to see just my stuff, just guest stuff, or everything, at your choosing. So take heart, if you're one of those who only want to read what I crank out (or would rather avoid it altogether). Change is afoot.
Uncle Buck and One Lonely Bull (by Gary)
Pssst… come 'ere. Did you hear the one about the guy who's still
bullish the US dollar? Yes, he actually exists. No no, I am not
including the perpetually dollar bullish Prechter and Hochberg. They
are a given.
But aside from them, I heard a rumor that this
other guy actually exists. Fear not however Hope '09 participants; what
are the odds that this lone guy would be right against an entire
financial world on the other side of that trade?
Everybody from
government to monetary officials are stacked against the USD. Wall
Street and the financial establishment remain on the other side of this
lucrative trade as they pitch their wares to the traumatized public.
The gold bugs who think rising copper and oil is good for the gold
sector? They're on board and indeed, leading the charge. So why worry
about a dollar rebound?
Well, the dollar has done some terrible
technical work on the big picture, which certainly informs NFTRH's view
for 2010, but in the short term all I see is what could be interpreted
as a break from a falling wedge (not shown on this chart that is
already too busy), a 3rd day above the SMA 50 (for the first time on
this systematic and grinding decline), RSI and MACD looking good and a
technical target up there at around the SMA 200.
If we are to
get a #2 leg in a mini cyclical bull (in hope), the dollar will first
rise and correct this mess, and that one lonely bull would be king of
the world for a short while on a short covering rally in USD. If not,
AGAIG '09 (as good as it gets) will continue to terminus and our
protagonist of one will join the rest of the world in staring down Bob
Prechter. —Gary
