Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Review of Risk Appetite in 2010 (by Biffermas)

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Assessing
the general willingness of speculators to exposure themselves to risk is vital,
for obvious reasons.  From March, 2009
through December, speculators tripped over each other exposing themselves.  Since the first two weeks of 2010 are over,
I'll review the slimy tracks that traders have left in bonds, equities, and
gold / silver, and compare this brief period with a longer-term view.

Stocks - Comparing the high-fliers of Google, Apple, and Amazon vs. the stodgy old Coca Cola, Procter and Gamble, and Johnson & Johnson

Longer term speculative names dropping 

 

Ten day leadership 

 

Bonds - A comparison of high-yield (riskier) bonds vs. the boring low-yield (high quality) names.

Longer term risky bonds 


Ten day bonds 


Gold / Silver - A simple comparison of the gold and silver ETFs.

Longer term silver gold 


Ten day silver gold 


To sum, equities are showing a reduction in risk appetite during the first few weeks of 2010, Bonds are essentially neutral, and the silver market is showing continued desire for risk over gold.

EWI Takes the Gloves Off

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The market has been frustrating a lot of folks, not the least of which our friends at Elliott Wave International. However, they have finally issued their clearest "this is it!" proclamation as of Friday's STU…….

 0116-wave3

Of course, what would STU be without some wiggle room in the text somewhere?

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In other words, "this is what's happening, unless it's not." Joking aside though, I always respect clear projections and declarations. EWI's chief Bob Prechter is no less clear, and his view of a bear market isn't the least bit forgiving. Observe:

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Yes, that's a level of about 400 or so on the Dow. I'm not even sure a nuclear apocalypse could produce that kind of result, but there you have it.

So at this point, a number of folks I respect have projections all over the map……..

  • Evil (molecool) is in "hibernation mode";
  • Gary Savage is going for an all-out bull market in gold and silver;
  • Good ol' Tim is still in a grind-it-out bear market mode, but with an ultimate low closer to 6000 than 400!

The handful of longs that I had, I sold on Friday morning. I am 100% short, although 40% of my portfolio is in cash, and I still have used $0 of margin. All the same, a 60% commitment is the highest level I've been at thus far.

Open Your Wallet and Give

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I've always been a fan of classic Broadway musicals, particularly from the 50s and 60s. In one of them, Fiddler on the Roof, there is an exchange that goes something like this:

Tevya: "Here, have one kopeck."

Beggar: "One kopeck? Last week you gave me two kopecks!"

Tevya: "I had a bad week."

Beggar: "So? If you had a bad week, why should I suffer?"

I confess to being a bit like Tevya lately, thinking I shouldn't be as generous as I was a year ago to charities, simply because back then I was rolling in dough.

But then I saw this picture from Haiti, and I immediately sent a donation (warning: it is not a pleasant picture). That image is a slice of hell on earth, and God knows I have enough to spare to add a little bit of help to a place that is suffering through no fault of its own. Shame on me for even hesitating before.

I would also add that an extremely tiny minority (Pat Robertson et. al.) have been making utter asses of themselves by blaming the Haitians for their own suffering. The easiest way to be different from a person like this is to send some cash to Haiti. Help them out. You are blessed with much. These poor people are desperate.

Here are a few suggestions:

Direct Relief International

Haitian Health Foundation

Unicef

Complete list from Charity Navigator

My little essay on Good & Evil defines evil as that which destroys life and liveliness. What has happened is evil. Be part of the good and help out, even if it's just a few dollars. Thank you.

Send Me a Photo!

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I figure anyone crazy enough to be on Slope on Saturday night or Sunday morning is going to be a die-hard, so here's my request – email me a photo (or even photos) or yourself to my email address, along with your screen name.

Why this strange request? I wanted to put together a fun little video of Slopers, since I was so inspired by our "real avatar day" last week. I'm not going to publish your real name, and my only interest in the picture is to include it in the video. Thanks! If I get enough of these, the result will be really cool.

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