Slope of Hope Blog Posts
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Take the Good with the Bad
Yesterday morning I shared some bad news about a stock that I was short – APL. Today the shoe is on the other foot. One of my shorts – ASIA (on which I had a somewhat larger position than APL, 1400 shares) lost about a quarter of its value due to its bad earnings release.
I confess that in situations like this I just take the money and run; I don't want to be in a situation like AMZN presented recently in which it opened dramatically lower and spent the rest of the day climbing to a virtually unchanged position.
Hitting Turbulence (by Springheel Jack)
After the fast bleed up of the last few days I'm expecting to see a
return to serious volatility during the next few days. I'm not sure of
the direction, but looking at USD particularly I'm expecting that we may
see some significant moves down, though longer term I'm still leaning
firmly bullish on equities.
On the GBPUSD daily chart we can see that the top of the strong rising
channel has almost been reached. I am expecting to see a return to the
bottom of the channel once it is hit and I'm expecting to see a parallel
move in EURUSD at the same time:
On the EURUSD daily chart we have nearly reached the next obvious
resistance level, which is the last significant declining resistance
trendline in the 1.315 area:
We've seen some recovery on ES overnight, but the broadening descending
wedge I drew on the 60 min chart is unbroken and I am expecting it to
hold for at least one more swing down. The target of the broken rising
wedge is the important support level at 1084.5 ES:
On the ES daily chart that 1084.5 target is the level of the lower trendline of a much larger rising wedge, if it is hit today.
If that rising wedge should break downwards next week then I would
expect it to develop, as they often do, into a rising channel and the
target, if hit at the end of next week, would be the lower trendline of
that potential rising channel in the 1050 ES area, so we could see a
retest of the mid-July lows:
I'm out all day today but I'm leaving some orders on. It should be an interesting day. 🙂
