Dominant Downtrend Still Intact (by Mike Paulenoff)

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The BIG picture Bollinger Band chart work on the emini S&P 500 shows that the recent vertical upmove from 1002.75 to 1099.50 traversed the April-July down-sloping price channel completely. But during the last 4 sessions it failed to hurdle the upper channel resistance line in the vicinity of 1095-1091.

Today's decline confirms the failure to hurdle the down trendline, and may confirm a failure to sustain above the declining 50 DMA (1082) as well. The mid-point of the BBnds is at the 20 DMA (now at 1062.70), but keep in mind that the average is still declining and failed to flatten out and turn up despite the 100 point vertical move in the e-SPU.

This is a very negative signal– a still-declining 20 DMA, which warns us that if the e-SPU continues lower to test the average, it will represent little or no support in its current position. Bottom line: As impressive as the July upmove has been, it failed to inflct significant damage to the dominant downtrend off of the April high, and in fact looks like it added another coordinate along the down trendline at 1099.


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