Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

On Becoming a Leader (or Trader!) (by Leisa)

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This is a bit of a comment cleaner. I often recommend this to young people who are finding their way.  For many of us 'older' people, it's a good way to reflect on our skills and experience and juxtapose those against what we are currently doing.

I think it is appropriate for developing traders (and I consider myself to be in this category) to figure out what type of trader s/he wants to be, by focusing on his/her personal traits and motivations. One could substitute "market" for "organization" I hope that you enjoy this.


On Becoming a Leader

Warren Bennis

(1989, Perseus Books)

How can you best express you?

The first test is knowing what you want, knowing your abilities and capacities, and recognizing the difference between the two.

The second test is knowing what drives you, knowing what gives you satisfaction, and knowing the difference between the two.

The third test is knowing what your values and priorities are, knowing what the values and priorities of the market  the market are, and measuring the difference between the two.

The fourth test is – having measured the differences between what you want and what you're able to do, and between what drives you and what satisfies you, and between what your values are and what the organization' market's values are – are you able and willing to overcome those differences. (pp 123-127)


Consumers & Cyclicals (by FacesinCabs)

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With the increase in
jobless claims this morning (a bounce to 475,000), it is probably a good time
to note a big change in the markets and economy – the change in consumer
spending.  Here are some charts
documenting what the markets are beginning to reflect about this topic.

 

http://tinyurl.com/399ue83
(A snapshot of Cyclicals)

Snap25

 

http://tinyurl.com/23j7qrg
(Cyclicals from a consumer measure)

Snap26

 

http://tinyurl.com/22tupaa
(Consumers are getting less discretionary and more defensive)

Snap27

 

I am not specifically
entering any specific trades based on these charts however but they certainly
suggest that the markets are getting more broken and vulnerable after a long
multi-month run up.  This economic
weakness is not necessarily something to celebrate, but it does provide
critical information for making better trades in the markets (which is why most
of us are here).

 

On My Radar

 

One trade I am
watching is real estate.  The IYR is
approaching an area where it has bounced above three times (going all the way
back to fat finger day), and that is the 45.50 area.  I currently own some SRS, and I would like to
see it really launch from its current levels. 
A move below 45.50 would ensure that.

 

http://tinyurl.com/27ltzzd

Snap28

 

However, real estate
has continued to show relative strength to the $SPX.  A price violation at 45.50 would suggest that
strength is in jeopardy.

 

Holy Shift!

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I am moving swiftly today, trading like a dancer (assuming I could dance). Very quickly:

+ Lightened up on big short postions; had a great day with SPY

+ Went long with IWM for a good profit; re-entered at an even better price am again long large IWM

+ Also went long GDX, which is very attractively priced, in my opinion.

+ Still have 170 shorts, almost all of them little

+ Took profits in marvelous AFAM short

Here's GDX

Picture 6