A Refusal to Break

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There was a time that my hatred of the number "1040" was simply directed at tax forms, but it has morphed into a loathing for the price level of the Standard and Poors Five Hundred. There was another time I remember a market that refused to drop below the levels that the P.T.B. would permit:



But, as the line goes in No Country for Old Men – – "This country's hard on people; you can't stop what's coming; it ain't all waiting on you. That's vanity."


Now, just to be clear, by no means am I suggesting anything like late 2008/early 2009 is going to happen. I think that plunge is a once-every-couple-of-generations kind of thing. Regrettably, I think the maddening market we've lived with the past year is the shape of the next few years……no real direction, a lot of frustrated traders, and an increasing lack of participation by a public that (wisely) doesn't trust the market anymore.

Anyway, the more we bounce off 1040, the harder it's going to be to crack, but if and when it does finally crack, it'll be just as hard to cross to the upside. For the moment, the bulls still have the baton.