TLT Spike High? (by Mike Paulenoff)

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Based on my near- and intermediate-term work, the pattern and momentum configuration in the iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas Bond ETF (TLT) argue that the price structure hit a spike high this morning at 109.50, reflecting the flight to safety surge in buying of US Treasury paper despite the puny yields.

While this morning's high might represent the first of multiple "high-spikes" in the 109-110 area, I am willing to take a small, initial countertrend position long the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treas Bond ETF (TBT). That said, to get preliminary confirmation that a meaningful high in the TLTs has been established, the price structure needs to violate and sustain beneath 107.50.

From a yield perspective, taking a shot at a countertrend position in the TBT's has technical justification. The most recent round of ugly U.S. economic data has pressed the 10-year yield to a new multi-month low at 2.42%, which satisfies the measured downside target off of the 10-month top pattern that broke down at the beginning of July 2010.

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