Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Harry Boxer’s Charts of the Day (Long & Short)
Originally published on TheTechTrader.com.
Military Musings (by Nathaniel Goodwin)
My roommate runs around all day saying things like, “I’ve earned my stripes, cuz!” He talks about the “enemy” and how I shouldn’t associate with them, he also talks a lot about what defines manliness . Nobody is sure how he has earned his stripes or who the enemy is, but that is why we call him the Colonel.
I was excited to see the new military stars in the comment section. Like the colonel; I feel “I’ve earned my stripes!” here, but will be proud to have the status of Private Goodwin if I’m demoted to one star.
The new ranking system also got me thinking about how I used to visit my grandpa and his partner Dennis as a child. Dennis was an avid WWII buff, and used to tell me all sorts of fascinating war stories. One he spoke of was how the secret Nazi Rainbow Warrior Unit would quietly infiltrate European counties to weaken the men of an opposing army before blitzkrieging the whole place.
Dennis said that the reason the Rainbow Warriors were successful was because their leaders knew they had a good group of men behind them, ready to bring it up the rear when the hot action started.
This chart then came to mind, Worden’s T2100 Advancing/Declining line which I check at least once a week. It is one reason I have been careful on the short side the past couple months. Often it seems that when a divergence occurs with the A/D line and the market, the A/D line wins.
Analogies have been discussed lately, so here is another one related to the military and A/D line. Trouble is afoot when the Colonels are leading (SP500 moving up), and the warriors are not following (A/D line is falling). However; this chart shows that the Colonels have been basing sideways, while the warriors are gathering behind them with their broadswords at attention. This chart seems to be telling me to buy the dips, and I could see Tim's analogy fitting with this. Another correction down, then significant move up.
I’m ready for action, and off to go polish my broadsword. Good luck everyone!
ES Breaks Support Overnight (by Springheel Jack)
Well the big news today is obviously that ES broke support overnight and that a retracement has started that should take us through today and tomorrow. I've marked the main targets on the 60min chart:
The first key target to fall was the IHS neckline at 1125 ES and that has been broken on an hourly close basis. That makes a visit to gap support at 1110 ES likely now, and if that gap can be filled then the wedge target is 1099 ES. Add 5 points for the SPX figures of course.
This is a very interesting development technically as a conviction break of and close below the IHS neckline will weaken that SPX IHS considerably, and that's what I'd like to see in trading hours today.
On USD we saw a return to the H&S neckline yesterday and an intraday move below it. USD is still in a strong downtrend but the odds of seeing a decent bounce here are pretty good:
On copper there was a strong move up yesterday within the recent rising wedge. I played around with the lower trendline a bit yesterday night and this is a very good quality wedge. On a break below the wedge I would expect to see a return to rising support in the 325 to 330 area. On a break above I would expect to see a move to rising resistance in the 390 – 400 area:
Oil is testing the recent support trendline, and with the drop on ES / SPX I'm expecting to see that support break and a return to the H&S neckline just over 71:
I'm expecting that we may well see a big move down on ES by the end of the week, probably tomorrow, and I'd put the chance of seeing an 1100 ES retest by then at about 50%. At the moment I'm expecting that to be followed by a move back up next week.
