It's no secret that bonds have been the bubble du jour, but it seems like the bubble is finally popping. This intraday chart of ZB is breathtakingly toppy.
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Be Careful What You Wish For … (by Springheel Jack)
…. as you might just get it!
I was concerned last week that we hadn't yet reached the key reversal zones necessary to make a major interim top on equities, but SPX didn't reverse, and we are clearly now going to see key resistance or support tests across the board this week. At that point we will either see a major interim top, or if those levels are broken, a major bull breakout.
I won't bother reposting the SPX rising channel or the ES rising wedge today as the next trendline targets for both are a long way above the key resistance levels of 1130 SPX and 1128.25 ES. I will post, on the bull side, the massive IHS that has almost finished forming on ES with a target of 1253.75 ES. I posted in late July that if we were to see a major bull breakout then I would expect a reversal to make the right shoulder on this pattern and well, here we are. That doesn't mean we will break up from here but it underlines the potentially very large scale of this breakout if we do:
On EURUSD my declining channel held when tested on Friday, and again when markets opened yesterday, but broke on the third test. There was a strong divergence between EURUSD and SPX at the close on Friday, and I wasn't expecting that to last long. EURUSD is pausing at declining resistance from the August high at the moment, but if that breaks and it reaches key resistance at 1.292 then it will have finished forming an IHS indicating to 1.325:
I'm going to post seven charts today as I'm trying to define all of the resistance and support levels that I see as important this week. Possibly the most important of the other charts is 30yr treasuries and there we have reached the rising channel support trendline and, since I did this chart, are poking through it. If this closes a day at below 130'15 that would look very bullish for equities, as would any break of 130:
On AUDUSD we have reached the reversal zone for the huge broadening formation that I posted last week. Short term resistance is at the upper trendline of the rising wedge in the 93.5 area. If this wedge breaks up, as they do 31% of the time, then the wedge target would be over 98.7. The broadening formation target would be in the 107 area of course:
I don't think CADUSD is particularly key, but I've found a very interesting rectangle bottom on this chart. Resistance is in the 98.5 to 99 area and on an upward breakout we would have a target of 104, on a downward breakout the target would be 89.5. These break downwards 55% of the time:
Oil and Copper don't have the very firm reversal levels of long bonds and AUDUSD, but on oil the next key resistance level is the broken rising channel trendline in the 77.75 area, and I would regard a break of that as a fairly bullish signal:
Copper has been underperforming equities in recent days, and I would see the recent high at 352.5 as the key resistance level. If broken then the next obvious target is in the 400 area:
Momentum is irrelevant at this point in my view, as momentum is generally with the other side in a key reversal area, and obviously if the strength of the economy was the key factor then we would see a reversal here. It isn't though, as we're in a mainly technical market, so the possibility of a major bull breakout here has to be taken very seriously. My personal feeling is that the bulls have a very real chance here, and it wasn't at all encouraging for the bear side that declining resistance from the April high was convincingly broken on Friday, and that long treasuries have failed so far to reverse at support overnight.
If we see a break down, then the downside potential is very big, and if we see a break up, then the likely targets look to be a long way up. On SPX we are looking at a likely break of 90 to 125 points in either direction. Only the bull breakout would look definitive though. If we reverse here then we are just continuing to trade the range that we've been in for months, but a bull breakout would most likely take us to new highs.
I'm mainly planning to play this area on the short side, but that's only because the risk/reward here is better on the short side. If we break up I'll reverse and make back my losses on the long side. That's just a strategic view though. Putting aside the bearish bias common to most of us who have read a lot of economic history I would say that the bulls have the technical edge this week, and a break up through resistance wouldn't surprise me.
All Is NOT What It Appears To Be (Market Sniper)
Back on August 13, 2010, Tim Knight posted "Moral Hazard Comes Home To Roost" http://slopeofhope.com/2010/08/moral-hazard-comes-home-to-roost.html For nearly a month I have had an on-going internal debate on whether to write this post. Be forewarned, this post will take you down a rabbit hole. If you wish to lead what Aristotle called "the examined life" and choose to take red pills, read on. If you are an ardent taker of blue pills, I would recommend that you skip this post.
The subject matter is extremely complex. It is historically convoluted and replete with legal and finacial intricacies. I am not a lawyer and much of this is not even part of any law school curriculum. However, as a nearly life long real estate investor and a real estate broker, as well as being a retired Certified Residential Appraiser, I am very well versed in banking as it relates to real estate loans.
As many here know, I am a staunch hard money advocate. I have come to my conclusions over many decades of research and reading the lessons of history. The purpose of this post is not to deal with the subject of what money is and what money is not. For those so inclined, I would suggest an excellent book, one of the best treatise on the subject I have read, Nathan Lewis' book Gold: The Once And Future Money. The book is well written, historically researched and not a "gold bug" rant. The money issue is not central to this post but does have bearing. As further background, I would suggest, when you have about an hour, to take a look at five videos. Here is the link to the first. You will find the links to the other four here as well. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVkFb26u9g8 Money as debt is central to the body of this post.
Historical Background
Two forms of government exist today in The United States Of America. The orginal form was under The Constitution. Basically, The Constitution was a union of the Sovereign States. Under it, the states retained most of the power and the federal government had limited power. Law was Common/Private Law.
With the Civil War came the aftermath and in 1871 the original United States became an entirely different creature: a corporation! This was done through a number of Reconstruction Acts passed by the Congress. What emerged was the UNITED STATES CORPORATION. The UNITED STATES CORPORATION does not operate under the United States Constitution. It operates under Corporate/Commercial/Public Law which has its roots in Maritime/Admiralty Law which is administrative in nature.
The Constitution is still there but dormant, usurped by what is also known as the Uniform Civil Code (UCC). This fact was made clear by Supreme Court Justice Marshall Harlan (Downes v. Bidwell, 182, U.S. 244 1901) by giving the following dissenting opinion: “Two national governments exist; one to be maintained under the Constitution, with all its restrictions; the other to be maintained by Congress outside and Independently of that Instrument.” Indeed, after 1871, nearly all power was transferred from the hitherto Sovereign States to the UNITED STATES CORPORATION. The states became mere administrative districts of the UNITED STATES CORPORATION.
Fast forward to 1913 and the Federal Reserve Act. The Congress in 1913 created a private central bank. Here is a list of shareholders. http://www.save-a-patriot.org/files/view/whofed.html How is this constitutional under Article I Section 8 http://www.usconstitution.net/xconst_A1Sec8.html ? ONLY Congress can coin money and regulate the value thereof. This is an undelagatable power. It would be the same as Congress granting LOCKHEED MARTIN CORPORATION the right to declare war! Ah!
Refer to the above. We are not operating under the Constitution but rather the UCC. The Congress can do as it pleases. Follow me here as this gets even more complex. In 1917 Congress passed the Trading With the Enemies Act (TWEA). This act was created to deal with countries we were at war with in World War I. It gave the President and the Alien Property Custodian the right to seize all the property of persons included in the act. Those persons could, if they wished to do business in this country, apply for a license.
By 1921 The Federal Reserve Bank (as Trustee for the Alien Property Custodian) held over $700,000,000 in "trust." This is of great importance because in 1933 48 Stat 1 of the TWEA was amended to include United States Persons. Executive Order 6102 was issued to seize the gold held by any United States Person. We were hence reclassified as enemy combatants and it became a federal crime for any United States Person to possess any gold in bullion or bullion coin form.
At the same time, in 1933, the UNITED STATES CORPORATION was bankrupt. Since the private Federal Reserve controlled the money, the UNITED STATES CORPORATION collateralized YOU so as to borrow the money. How could that be done? We are not owned by the UNITED STATES CORPORATION. Yes, indeed we are and through that corporation, we are indirectly owned by the Federal Reserve. I will explain this "mechanism."
The Straw Man
You will notice in all of the above, corporations are identified by all capital letters. That is how all corporations (a legal person but fictitious entity ) are identified under the UCC. Now, if you have it available, look at your social security card. Your name is in all capital letters. Have a checking account? Look at your name. All capital letters. Do an experiment, next time you open a personal checking account, attempt to get your name spelled with capital letter at the beginning only. Also, while you have your checkbook handy, get out a strong magnifying glass and look at the "line" where you sign your name. It is not a line. It is printing. Now you are twins.
One a natural person and the other a quasi-corporation, the straw man. This was done to you at birth. If you have the chance. Take a look at your birth certificate. Again, your name is in all capital letters! Take a look at the border of your birth certificate, bottom left hand side. Says American Banknote Company! You will also note that your birth certificate has a red number on it. All birth certificates in public hands are copies even the one at the county recorder! Where is the actual original? Within two weeks and three days each Certificate of Live Birth is to be filed in Washington D.C.
Evidence reveals that there is even a Federal Children Department established by the Shepherd/Townsend Act of 1922 under the Department of Commerce that appears to be involved in this process in some way. Every citizen is given a number (the red number on the Birth Certificate) and each live birth is valued at from 650,000 to 750,000 Federal Reserve dollars in collateral from the Fed. Since the early 1960's, state governments have issued birth certificates to "persons" with legal fictitious names using all capital letters. This "corporation" then generates taxes and wealth over its (your) lifetime. This is the way that the collateral (you) pay the "money" borrowed from the Federal Reserve by the UNITED STATES CORPORATION. Your birth certificate (or papers of naturalization) is actually a bond as well as a banknote. It is also a form of securities known as warehouse receipts. Your birth certificate meets all the requirements of A/7-202 of the UCC. To wit:
- the location of the warehouse where the goods are stored…(residence)
- the date of issue of the receipt…..("Date issued")
- the consecutive number of the receipt…(found on back or front of the certificate, usually in red numbers)
- a description of the goods or of the packages containing them…(name, sex, date of birth, etc.)
- the signature of the warehouseman, which may be made by his authorized agent…(municipal clerk or state registrar's signature)
- Adding insult to injury, if you wish to take your child as a deduction on your tax return, you have to obtain a social security card for that child.
- You may wish to find out how you can regain your status as a Soverign Individual by taking control of your straw man! That is well beyond the scope of this post.
The Real Estate Loan
When I was a real estate appraiser when time was not pressing, I would often ask this question of the real estate broker who admitted me to property that had been sold. "I see that on this $1,250,000 sale, the buyer is getting a $1,000,000 loan. Do you know where that $1,000,000 comes from?" Never did get the correct answer.
The truth of the matter is simply this: until that loan is funded, the $1,000,000 does NOT exist in the known universe! The borrower creates the very money he borrows. Here is how that is accomplished. When you take out a loan, you signed a Promissory Note (and yes, your name was, again, all in capital letters). A promissory note is a monetary instrument, much like the dollar bills you have in your pocket. So in this case the promissory note for $1,000,000, to the funding bank, is the same as a $1,000,000 bill, same as cash. The bank creates a Demand Account in your straw man name. with a balance of zero. The bank then takes your promissory note (can't fund the loan without it!) and puts it in your straw man demand account. Balance is now $1,000,000 in that account. The bank then writes a cashier's check (or bank wire) for $1,000,000 to pay the seller of the house your buying their Monies in Full. The balance in your straw man demand account is then reduced to zero.
IF the entire process stopped right here, there would be no crime committed, no fraud committed and everyone would be in an equitable position. The moment you start paying principal and interest payment demanded by the bank after your account has been brought to zero, your payments become your damages. The bank is extorting money from you and giving you nothing of value in return!
It would be like you borrowing $100 from me and I have a counterfeit bill printing business in my basement and then demand you pay me back with interest. The UCC has remedies (administrative) for this type of fraud. The banks can be defeated using administrative proceedures in the UCC. They can be beaten using their own rules under the UCC. It is common perception that the banks hold all the cards. They hold cards alright. Ten high with no flush or straight or even a pair and the game is not lowball. The borrower, once this is understood and acted upon actually holds the winning hand.
It can also be stated that when the bank made the "loan" the collateral was the property. They made a business decision. If the homeowner makes a business decision to allow the bank to take its collateral that does not constitute moral hazard.
I have attempted to make a very murky and complex subject as simple and understandable as I could. Suffice to say, without honest money there can be no honest debt. Moral hazard in not paying the mortgage? What moral hazard?
20 Stocks That Are Breaking Down (By Ryan Mallory)
Lately, I've been updating this bearish stock screen on a weekly basis, and preferably right after a decent bounce in the market that allows for prices in stocks across the board to creep back in to overbought territory.
What we have below is a handful of stocks that are showing signs of, or already in the process of, breaking down as the smart money appears to be leaving them in a subtle manner. There are stocks trading at its peak and finally showing some vulnerability, while on the other extreme there are stocks that had been in a channel near or at its lows, before finally breaking down below those lows.
There is some oil/gas companies along with utilities that are popping up all over this particular screen. Of those listed though, I am liking Foot Locker (FL), which is a shoe retailer, the best. This stock has two things going against it that provides an intriguing reward/risk setup to the short side. First, the stock has broken its trend-line from its November lows and the old trend-line is now acting as overhead resistance, and secondly, it is bouncing up against the new downward trend-line right above it.
Here are 20 Stocks That Are Breaking Down.
