This is one of my better performers today; it's a style of short I really like – – – a nice, clean series of lower lows and lower highs, progressing clearer downward in a stair-step fashion.
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Bull Market In Money (by Springheel Jack)
I'm not really seeing much on ES this morning. We've just been chopping around uncertainly so far this week and that could continue today. I have some some trendlines on ES that are showing more short-term potential downside than upside so I'm cautious on the long side right here. If ES can break 1150 then 1170 looks likely, but that's still an if so far, and we are stalled under the SPX January high for the moment. Here's the ES 15min chart:
Looking around the world there are some big indices that don't look that bullish at the moment. On the FTSE we've actually been in a declining channel for the last couple of weeks. Currently the FTSE is in a small triangle and a break from that may give a direction for the next few days:
Unlike the FTSE, the EUR DAX futures chart hasn't even yet exceeded the August high. I'm seeing a rather larger triangle there:
One thing that is definitely making me wonder about the strength of this bull move in equities is the recent strength in 30yr treasuries. Looking back over the last year and a half there is no doubt at all that these tend to trend down when equities trend up. QE may moderate that effect to an extent and cushion the fall, but it has not made them rise at the same time.
It is strange then that long treasuries have been so strong in recent days, and I'm considering the possibility that these might be in a rising channel. I've put three possible resistance trendlines on the chart and the next peak should indicate which one is the right one.
As ever, the many silver and gold bears are being taken to the cleaners. I had thought that silver might find resistance at the 2008 high, but it was broken last week and if reached soon, I'm seeing channel resistance in the 23.75 area. If this move takes longer, and is as long as the last big wave up then it might go to 25.25 before the next interim top:
Looking at silver, we have a very healthy bull move going there. What is persistent strength in precious metals telling us? Only that precious metals look a better store of value than fiat currencies. Central bankers inflated a series of bubbles with low interest rates and easy money, and when that led to a crash, they have stepped in to fix the problem with even lower interest rates and a flood of money printing. Who says you can't teach an old dog new tricks?
Ben Bernanke has told us that he will print whatever quantity of money is needed to revive an economy already sick from repeated previous overdoses of easy money, and we all believe him. The bull market in precious metals may go a lot further yet.
An Ideal Long
Let me show you a chart that I own and that I really, really like. I've mentioned it before; it's Rackspace.
Why do I like this chart? Let me count the ways:
(1) The pattern is nice and big; the saucer spans nearly a year wide;
(2) The pattern is extremely well-defined. This has "saucer breakout" written all over it;
(3) The volume has generally been increasing, and on the breakout, the volume exploded higher.
As much of a permabear reputation as I have, I like to highlight the longs that I genuinely respect and appreciate.
Hanging Man or Hanged Bear?
It's the hottest day of the year here in the Silicon Valley, and I just rode my bike many miles after dropping my car off for some service. So I'm not in the mood for a long post (the cutesy drop-then-surge today doesn't add much inspiration either).
Every index ETF has a hanging man. I don't put huge amounts of faith in candlestick patterns, since they are principally about the relationship between a single day's opening and closing prices, and I don't think that single data point makes a whole hell of a lot of difference. All the same, it's worth noting:
I am just about counting the minutes until this wretched month is over. I have ten long positions, one of which is (as usual) a very large SPY position as a hedge. The mega-risk to the bears, as everyone on the planet knows, is a zoom to 125.
The market is acting weirder every day. I, for one, will throw myself a little party when this month – and this quarter – are history. September's reputation as the month for the bears should permanently be executed.
22 Stocks That Are Breaking Down (By Ryan Mallory)
There are some bearish divergences out there indicating that this market could reverse course and allow for us to see a pullback of sorts in the very near future. While I don't rule that out, I think the odds are we move higher, and I have positioned my portfolio accordingly. Below you will find a handful of stocks that are showing signs of, or already in the process of, breaking down as the smart money appears to be leaving them in a subtle manner. There are stocks trading at its peak and finally showing some vulnerability, while on the other extreme, there are stocks that have been in a channel near or at their lows, before finally breaking down below those lows.
One particular play that seemed to be of interest to me is Kimberly Clark Corp (KMB), which broke its upward trend line yesterday, and is seeing continued selling into today. Where I'd be interested in shorting this stock is if it can break through support at $63.75 and put in a lower-low as a result.
Here are 22 Stocks That Are Breaking Down.
