Let me start with an important premise: I love trading. Because if I didn't love trading, days like today would have compelled me to quit long, long ago.
My love for trading makes the thousands of hours I put into charting and doing this blog each year seem almost effortless. Most of the time, there's really nothing else I'd rather be doing.
So I've had thoughts racing through my head all day long, particularly after the close. I've been questioning myself, my methods, my approach………everything. By "question", I don't mean "dismissing"; I mean critically analyzing. I still believe my style and approach to the markets work best for me, although, unfortunately, it has been very out-of-synch with the market for far too long.
So what has all this thinking yielded? Two important questions I've been posing to myself:
Why not just resort to day-trading? It's tempting. When I read about nummy having something like 28 profitable days in a row, and Market Sniper having – what was it? – something like 50 – – not to mention day traders not having to worry about overnight gaps, it is horribly tempting to throw all the knowledge I've built over the past quarter-century into the shredder and just take that approach. But, simply stated, that just isn't me, and it's not my style. There's a reason I approach the markets the way I do; sometimes it works brilliantly; sometimes it seems foolhardy. Lately, it seems to be more of the latter. But throwing my arms up and completely changing styles just because I'm frustrated doesn't seem prudent to me, although I'm willing to hear other opinions.
What worries you more than anything? It isn't pre-election shenanigans; it isn't monthly OPEX silliness; it isn't the Fed; it isn't Geithner. What worries me above all is…….what if I'm wrong about the economy? What if all this government intervention, in the end, turns out to be a brilliant stroke, and it really does set the economy on the road to a robust economy complete with healthy, growing earnings, growing employment, and worldwide prosperity? What if my sense of "balance" and "natural" is just misguided, and the modern knowledge of economics has yielded a situation where things simply aren't going to roll over again? I have no answer. That's simply my question.