The last time I discussed my analog, I believed a drop from "h" to "i" was going to take place. It hasn't; the market has just chugged higher. I still believe this one last drop for the bears in 2010 is in the cards, and I've updated my charts accordingly.
Below is the chart from the late 1930s; the aforementioned drop would be from "12" to "13" (which is the equivalent of "h" to "i" mentioned last time). After this drop, a hearty rally challenging the April 2010 highs should take place, and I plan to have a ton of precious metals and stocks at that time.
Looking at the present chart, you can see that the range for (13) is massive, because – – – even though the form for the analog has been holding up exceedingly well, the terminus points have been either muted or exacerbated, distorting the form. So (13) could fall from anywhere down to about (10) to much farther, down below (11). As manipulated as this market is, I'm leaning toward a more modest fall.
Once this fall is complete, I plan to load up and be out of shorts almost entirely, if not completely. There is some kind of "shock event" for next spring (or thereabouts) that will change everything, but I want to ride things up until then. I imagine Bernanke's shenanigans will finally come home to roost, and the U.S. is going to be up the creek without a paddle.
I have finally set aside the Elliott Wave entirely as a predictive tool. Indeed, I would say that nothing has been more destructive to my own financial prosperity over my lifetime than the attention I have paid to this method. I know there are other prognosticators besides EWI, but I find them all collectively to be just noise.
I have taken readers' advice and am going to be following my own analysis. Because you know what? There is no wave 3. Or wave X. Or anything else like that.
It's a fun parlor game to put labels on "waves" after the fact, but for predictive value?……..I'm done with it. It doesn't work.