Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

China – FXI UPDATE (by Goatmug)

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Just a quick follow up on the China trade (FXI) I outlined last week.  In the post titled, China – Great Big Loveable Panda or Blood Thirsty Bear I noted that the etf was close to breaking critical support at $42.00.  As often is the case, I have been short that trade since the post and have slowly been bled to death by the daily POMO that makes markets go one direction despite the fundamentals that suggest the price action should be the opposite. 

As of this writing at 9AM Eastern, FXI is trading at $41.79 pre-market.  If we open here, this should be cause for a doubling of my short position, with a target on the downside of at least $39.00 and a lower target of $36.00.  Let me emphasize that you really should wait for a confirmation below $42 during regular hours to get into this trade.

China raised one year interest rates yesterday by a quarter of a point to 6.06% as they attempt to cool off their overheating economy.  Please see the following Bloomberg article on the topic – http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-09/hong-kong-gauge-drops-to-lowest-this-year-as-china-raises-rates.html

(FXI)

What does this mean for other emerging countries?  The serious answer is I don't know.  If we look at charts like EEM, I don't see anything there that is a big tell as to direction, although it is really just floating out in space and could easily drop back to support around $43.75.  I think a better target might be found in a chart like the one below EWS (Singapore), it looks like a pretty good short with an easy stop above $14.00.

(EWS)

I will have the monthly macro update done this evening.  Please continue to check in at www.goatmug.blogspot.com .  Until then, be careful!

NYX Dumb Luck

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I figure God took pity on this pathetic human and decided to throw a little good news my way. I bought a chunk of NYX this morning based on its cup with handle pattern. I moved on with my day, and unknown to me, they halted trading. A few minutes ago, I was puzzled to see a big gain on my screen, and I figured it must be an error. It turns out NYX is in merger talks, which is really weird since this happened during market hours.

As depressed as I've been lately, it's nice that something good happen to me, even if it was mostly dumb luck. Thanks, big guy. I needed this. (Follow-up: I just checked, and I entered the trade at 35.19 within seconds of the trading being halted. WOW! I sold it at 39.55 just now.)

0209-NYX

Dip Still Looks Close (by Springheel Jack)

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I'm running late today so just a quick post with updated charts from yesterday. The ES triangle I posted yesterday broke down overnight:

The short term rising wedge on NQ retested the broken trendline yesterday:

Copper hasn't dropped much yet and may be forming a larger H&S than I was thinking yesterday, but it has also established a gentle declining channel since the start of the week:

I thought I should add the silver chart as well today, where it is in a decent rising channel and looks ready to retest the recent highs:

Equities still look ready for a decent dip to me. I know there's POMO practically every day at the moment, but even in a time of JBTFD, we do still get dips, and one is looking imminent here unless we're going to see a major resistance break.