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Opex Thursday (by Springheel Jack)

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Opex going on in the background this week of course, which makes the week interesting to trade, though so far this week has been very nice to daytraders, and it's possible we might see more decent intraday action today. There are definite signs of rot however as on NQ the strong support trendline was broken slightly this morning with an hourly open below the trendline. That hasn't been followed through yet however, and the ES support trendline is still holding. The support trendlines on NQ and ES are solid and leave no room for interpretation, but the upper trendlines are trickier to pin down and I've been playing around with alternatives. I think I've nailed the short term resistance trendlines on both, though if we break down today those will become irrelevant of course. Here's the picture on NQ:

Here's the ES 60min chart:

Copper had a bad night, and hit my initial target area. It has formed a broadening descending wedge on the move down and I'm looking for a retracement into the 448/9 area, though the bigger picture on copper still suggests more downside to me:

Oil looks interesting this morning. I've identified a right angled and descending broadening formation which is a neutral pattern but gives solid upside and downside targets as long as the pattern lasts. The overall setup on oil looks distinctly bearish too, though a break through upside resistance would immediately target the 100 level if we see that:

I've been watching EURUSD closely for signs of a major reversal. The jury's still out until it breaks up from the wedge, so ther real test should be at 1.365. If declining resistance is broken I'll be leaning strongly bullish on EURUSD but it could go either way:

We could continue the range trading of recent days today but overall the market looks very vulnerable here. Copper is often a good lead indicator and it has looked very weak this week, and may deteriorate considerably further. I gave a possible target for copper below 400 earlier this month and if we see a conviction break of 442 then I'll be looking at that again. If the support trendlines on NQ and ES break down we could see a very sharp correction on equities here.