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I noticed something interesting tonight when I happened to glance at the New Zealand kiwi:
That's right – – a potentially beautiful head and shoulders pattern. If completed, the target would be 0.75. Looking at the longer-term, daily chart, we might push past that and get to 0.73. In any case, I found during the oh-so-wonderful 2008 that this was a vitally important exotic currency to watch.
I was on top of the TICK-o-Meter today (I tweeted several times about it) and that made me some good money short this morning. The extreme reading made me do some quick looking at previous negative extremes. I've looked at positive extremes before but not negative extremes.
I did a quick look back at the maximum negative TICK readings for the NYSE over the past several months … surprisingly there seems to be about 1/month.
My initial thought is that these TICKs are good exhaustion type events, and looking at the data has confirmed it. The only thing that is different here today is the consensus thinking on commodities. Today is much more bearish than during the other dates noted. That could make today's hang-over last a little bit longer and mute any near term bounce.
Cheers … Leaf_West
We have truly come full circle:
