Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Pay OFF That Mortgage! (by Market Sniper)

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The other evening on Slope, we got into a discussion about the merits and possible ways to pay off ones home earlier than "as agreed." I thought I would do a post on this topic and go into greater detail as to the merits and some ideas for getting that done. I maintain, the average person can pay off his personal residence in less than 10 years without having to eat just beans and rice.

This post is solely about your personal residence. Where you live. Rental real estate is another area and this post does not necessarily apply to any rental properties you may have. It also is directed towards the individual that does not contemplate a move in the near or intermediate future as other factors then enter the picture.

First of all, recognize the FACT that your personal residence is NOT an asset! It is always a liability, even if it is owned free and clear of any liens or mortgages. It is ONLY an asset when you sell it and cash the escrow check. Why is that? On your personal balance sheet, any equity shows as an asset, right? Well, by my definition, to be an asset, it cannot have negative cash flow. Even a free and clear home has negative cash flow. You must pay property taxes and you should have at a very minimum, liability insurance. Fire insurance is optional once your home is mortgage free. If you cannot sleep at night without fire insurance, by all means, you will need that as well. The only possible exception to this would be if you are renting out rooms to tenants in your home.

Your home is your shelter and as soon as possible, you do not want any "bank partners" on your home. Most do not realize that if you have a 30 year amortized loan and you make each montly payment, as agreed, you will end up paying over three times the original loan balance (depending on interest rate) and it will take you approximately 23.5 years to pay that loan down by 50%! So, how can this pay-off be accelerated? There are a number of strategies.

1. When you get a 30 year fixed loan (or you have one now), get a complete print out of each month, all 360 of them, for how much of each monthly payment is interest and how much is principle. Your real estate agent should be able to get this for you. If not, I believe there are internet resources to get this information. Take that mythical $1,000 per month payment. First month say $982.00 is interest and $18 is principle. The next month, $18.04 is principle. What you do, that first month, is to take the next month's principle and add it to that first month's payment. Go to the 360th payment and strike it off! You just made that payment at the end of the loan! In other words, $18.04 today has saved you a $1,000 payment at the end of the loan! What, in effect, you have done is to create a 15 year graduated payment loan that you are in control of the payments! Many look at a 15 year amortized loan and the level payments are too high for their, then, budget. Hopefully, over time, your income will also increase.

2. Talk to your lender. See if they have a program that will allow you to make payments on the 1st and the 15th of each month, each time for 50% of the monthly payment and they then calculate principal reduction upon receipt of those payments. Some lenders can do this, most will not but it does NOT hurt to ask. Since interest is earned over each payment time period, anything you can do to reduce principle upon which interest is calculated is to your benefit. Word of caution: do NOT enroll in any mortgage reduction plan from a third party. They are charging you for something you can do without their help! Basically, such programs just adds a 13th payment per anum is all.

After doing this, then we come to a fork in the road. We need to further accelerate the pay off. There are only two ways to accomplish this. You must increase your cash flow and use that extra cash flow to pay down your mortgage and/or you must decrease your expenses and use that saving realized to pay down your mortgage.

Some starter ideas to increase your cash flow. 

1. Have any spare time? Get a temporary part-time job. Even if it is only delivering newspapers in the early morning. Weekend work, etc.

2. Sell unneeded possessions. We are all "collectors" and we all have "stuff" we do not use or need. Sell them. You can even start a small home-based business doing this if your so inclined. Become expert in one field, for example, porcelain.  You know what is good "stuff" and what is junk and you know what the market is in your field of expertise. Go to higher end area garage sales, estate sales, etc. Buy low and sell higher. You know what you are looking at and most sellers do not have a clue.

3. Let your creative juices flow. You may be very surprised what you can come up with when you really think about it. All extra generated cash goes towards principle loan reduction.

Some starter ideas for decreasing your expenses.

This is the area where many people balk at taking action. Most do not want to really differentiate between needs and wants. Make a game out it. You will be richly rewarded. Your free and clear home can be almost just around the corner.

1. Have an RV? How often do you use it? Would it not be cheaper to rent one for those few time you do? If so, get rid of the RV.

2. Own a car you owe money on? Lease or purchase. Think about this carefully. You need reliable transportation that is comfortable. A vehicle's purpose is to get you from point A to point B. Why would you owe any money on something that decreases in value every day you own/use it?

3. Everyone should own a "business." Have a hobby? It is no longer a hobby, it is a business. Check with your tax adviser/CPA on this. He should be able to guide you in this area as to tax consequences. If he is unwilling or unable to do this, fire him immediately and find one who will. You are missing out on important tax savings if you are NOT doing this. Tax savings is cash and goes toward principle reduction!

4. Examine every bill you have. Your phone bill. Is there a cheaper program? Do you have voice mail box? Those things cost $20+ per month. Go get an answering machine! Your gas bill. Most utilities have free programs to better weatherize your home and get that gas bill down!

5. Go out to dinner once a week? Take that down to once a month. Get some friends together and form a "dinner club." Once a week, each will, in turn, throw a dinner party! Much cheaper than a restaurant and a lot more fun!

6. Clip coupons. You can even find them on the net. Why pay total retail for the things you need? Buy in bulk for saving whenever possible. Ever asked a retailer for a discount? Try it! Times are tough! You would be surprised! Especially, if you are carrying cash! They should give you at least a small discount for using cash over a card. Costs them when you use your card! Ask for it! Worse thing that could happen is you might hear no and that does not cost a dime!

7. Start buying good condition used instead of new whenever possible and practical. Often, used will last longer than the same item bought new!

8. The use of "windfalls" which could be inheritance, job bonuses and even a tax refund. Pay down that loan!

9. The possibilities are ENDLESS! You might make a habit out of asking yourself "do I really NEED this that I am buying or do I just WANT it?" before you pull out your wallet.

Some final thoughts.

First, let's slay the dragon of "I will lose my write off of the interest if I pay my house off." Let us take a hypothetical. You own your home free and clear of a mortgage and I owe on my home. I pay $10,000 a year to the bank in interest. You pay nothing and both of us start the year with $10,000 in the bank and we are both in the 40% tax bracket. At the end of that year, I write off $10,000 effecting a $4,000 tax savings and I have NOTHING left in the bank. You write a check to the IRS for $4,000 more in tax than I had to pay. You have $6,000 left in the bank. Who is better off?

One great burden has been lifted from you if you take action now and continue to take action. Your life can change dramatically once you are debt free! All kinds of other possibilities will be open to you. Look at it as a "game." See just how fast you can get it paid off! In this game, you can ONLY win!

Get that house paid off? Throw a good old fashioned mortgage burning party! Be sure to invite all your neighbors to the bbq! Every month then, your neighbors will look at your home while THEY are writing out a check to the bank and think…that SOB!! Be sure to invite me as well. If your too far away, lift a tall cool one in my direction on the West Coast!

Yours in the constant search of the edge. In trading and in life. Market Sniper

This Isn’t 1995

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As most of you know, my home is in the heart of the Silicon Valley, and I am thus in the center of the current lunacy (last enjoyed back in 1999).

Since most residents in a ten mile radius of my house feel they are entitled by divine law to be multi-millionaires (if not billionaires) before they turn 30, they have to have in mind some kind of narrative that will lead them to their fortunes. The current one goes like this:

(a) LinkedIn's IPO was analogous to the Netscape IPO in 1995;

(b) Since the Valley is crammed with real companies that have real products and real revenues, they will all be going to the public markets real soon;

(c) The timespan 1995-1999 will be re-deployed as 2011-2015. This year will include Pandora, Groupon, Zynga, and then the big Kahuna……..

(d) Facebook! Then the entire world will be going mad for tech IPOs, which, gosh darn it, aren't in a bubble - honest!;

(e) By the time 2015 rolls around, we'll all be Much Wiser than the poor saps in 1999 and will cash in at the peak (NASDAQ 7500, I'd guess)

The reality will be much simpler:

(a) LinkedIn will analogous to TheGlobe and is already down nearly 50% from its first day's high;

(b) Pandora, Groupon, and Zynga will indeed go public (or have already done so), and they'll all be in single digits by next year. Some of the most watched IPOs this year and next will be delisted by 2013;

(c) Facebook will indeed come out, and fall instantly, and the most ferocious bear market of the past century can finally begin in earnest. The lawsuits and recriminations will begin, and drinking it all in will be the most fun you can have with your clothes on. I'll bring the popcorn.

In the meantime, keeping smoking that Silicon Valley weed, my friends and neighbors. Slope of Hope is going to be where it's at. I've got two turntables and a microphone.

0617-lnkd
0617-p
0617-renn

Having said all that, companies like LinkedIn and Facebook will obviously still be around – – just like Yahoo is – – but will have found their true value in the public markets. There is no doubt that web sites like these are permanently popular, but a few of this organizations are doing to realize that Going Public Sucks, and even though they couldn't imagine it, they'll really regret it in the end.

LINES IN THE SAND (by Goatmug)

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I've been doing some unusual posts of late and I'm extremely busy.  I've done a lot of looking at charts and I am going to share them with you.  These are positions I've owned for a very long time and have done well in my long term account with.  These are all plays that I've mentioned over the last two years.  Each of them (with the exception of the last 4) look very similar.  I've indicated ones that I actually sold this week, but also have indicated my levels for stops if I still have them.  I don't have time for any commentary on any of them, check out the charts and look at the stop levels.  If the eft or stock is trading below the level indicated, I'm probably out.

As you know, I expect some sort of resolution to the Greek issue because the ECB cannot let that fail.  We will or should get some relief rally, but I think the bond market will immediately attack Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Ireland again, and we'll reface this same scenario and it will really hurt the prospects in the market till late summer or early September when we have some sort of new stimulus.

By the way, the short on RIMM that I've held on and off for a very long time (since mention on April 5th) has worked nicely.  I'm out of that trade now.  http://goatmug.blogspot.com/2011/04/apple-resting-or-shift-in-play.html  (Scary that a long time is a two months isn't it?)

XLE (ENERGY)

Stop $71.45

EWZ – BRAZIL

($71.45 – Sell)

ECH – CHILE

$73.62 – SELL

EWC – CANADA

$30.25

 EWM – $14.12

 

XLI – INDUSTRIALS

$35.75

VLO

$24

UGA – GASOLINE

$48.00

DBC – COMMODITIES

$28.40

BX -  BLACKSTONE 

$16

DEFENSIVE THEMES – NOT SELLING HERE

XLU – UTILITIES

$30.75

 

PPA – DEFENSE

$17.50

 

XLV – HEALTH CARE

$31.66

XLP – CONSUMER STAPLES

$28.80

 

That's it, no more commentary than that.  Be careful and blow out of positions that could crush you.  Chances are we get a relief rally this weekend, but it will be short lived and that will be the chance to unload positions that you don't want to have for a long time at lower prices.

Please check out the blog at www.goatmug.blogspot.com I'm got some good things cooking for the weekend.