JPM & TBT Poised for Upside Reversal (Paulenoff)

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If the directional overlay of the big money center banks — i.e., JP Morgan (JPM) — on the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) is any gauge, then the mature downtrend in both JPM and the TBT is poised for a powerful upside reversal.

The TBT hit its low on July 12 at 31.87 and has climbed to 33.25, while JPM hit a new multi-month low today at 38.93, but has recovered to 39.50 so far.

This chart is "warning" us that higher rates matter to a major lender like JPM, especially in a likely new regulatory environment that seeks to redefine banks in a more traditional business role (not as speculative hedge funds). The key to such a successful transition for a JPM, for instance, is an ability to make money by borrowing near term, and lending longer term. Higher longer term rates will accomplish that, which just might be what this comparison chart is telling us.

Of course, it also could be telling us that no matter what Congress and the President decide to do about the debt ceiling and the deficit, credibility and trust in the efficacy of the U.S. Government has taken a serious hit in confidence, which is why longer term rates (and the TBT's) are headed higher.

Nonetheless, regardless of the reason for higher longer-term rates, JPM should benefit.

Originally published on