Just a random observation here – – – the market has bounced very quickly, but there are two things in the favor of the bears: (a) a meaningful amount of overhead supply, enveloped below in green; (b) the fact that the market did violate the supporting trendline, suggesting not only weakness but a lower probability that the market will be able to attain the upper boundary of its current trading range. It's still too early to go hog-wild shorting, but a few select plays here and there make sense at these levels.
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
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A Bounce Example
Having this clutch of long positions is making today a lot more pleasant for this almost-always bear. I wanted to offer an example of the kind of long I'm holding – Arch Coal, shown below. I think it has the potential to get as high as about $22 or so (thereabouts…….) before reversing. That is a very substantial percentage move from its levels of yesterday, where I bought it, and I'm up 8.41% on the position so far.
I will emphasize this over and over and over again – – I believe the Oh My God Short Everything opportunity is coming soon – maybe within days, but no more than a few weeks out – and I intend to have as many as 300 short positions at that time. Until then, I'm playing it 50/50 bull/bear, looking for the best opportunities in each.
I've been stopped out of many short positions already today, but that's what stops are for.
Happy to Be Long
Yesterday I acquired 19 long positions. This morning I entered 20 more long positions. Sharper Slopers will reach the conclusion that I've got 39 long positions, which is, shall we say, a little unusual.
Most of them have eerily similar patterns – – (a) a small inverted head and shoulders (b) from a candlestick perspective, an abandoned baby, both of which suggest a nice push upward. NONE of these are long-term or even medium-term holds. These are opportunistic bounce plays. I don't often share my watch lists, but I'm in a giving mood this morning, so here's what I'm holding.
Potential Points for Russell Recovery
A bounce higher is in the cards, but I'm not sure if it'll exhaust itself today or take several days to pan out. What I don't doubt is that it'll exhaust itself, but I see three potential places where the Russell could reach its maximum.
Finding Your True Voice
I just thought I'd share this video for you night owls; I have never listened to Louis CK, but I know he's quite popular these days, and I really enjoyed hearing how George Carlin inspired him. For me, this is all about finding your true voice, no matter what your passion.
