One thing is abundantly clear. The market has one and only one mission right now: confusing and screwing as many bulls and bears as it possibly can, without prejudice. Trendless. Directionless. Unpredictable. Agonizing. Maddening.
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Hedging Update — Commodity ETFs
Commodity ETF Update
Hey fellow Slopers,
A number that stood out when compiling the data for this post was the current cost of hedging the first gold ETF, GLD. Back in August, the cost of hedging it against a greater-than-20% drop over approximately the next 7 months was less than 0.95%; as of Monday, it was nearly 2.5%. The table below shows that, as well as the costs, as of Monday's close, of hedging several other commodity ETFs against greater-than-20% declines over the next several months, using optimal puts.
Comparisons
For the individual oil ETFs, I added the PowersShares DB Energy ETF (DBE) as a comparison, and for the individual agricultural commodity ETFs I added PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA) as a comparison. First, a reminder about what optimal puts are, and why I've used 20% as a decline threshold; then, a screen capture showing the current optimal puts to hedge the comparison agricultural commodity ETF, DBA.
Triangles and the Euro (by Springheel Jack)
I have an analyst friend who's kind enough to give me his view on EURUSD every so often. He's an EW chartist mainly and though I know a lot of people have little time for EW, it is a tool like any other. In the hands of the inexperienced it is treacherous and ambiguous, and in the hands of a master it can be very impressive indeed. This friend of mine is in the latter category. He called the late 2009 high on EURUSD, and when I was in correspondence with him a year later he called the early 2011 low in the 1.29 area as well, adding at the time that he was expecting the following move up to top out in the 1.46-1.47 area. He was right on both counts again and when he talks about EURUSD I always listen very carefully to what he has to say.
His current comments are extremely interesting. I had sent him my possible H&S on EURUSD with the target in the 1.275 to 1.28 area and his reply was as follows:
