At the close of September the market closed down 5 consecutive months which has only happen twice before 2011. Looking at the chart below which shows the monthly change from the 5th consecutive down month. You can see the market reacts differently each time after 2 months. In 2001 the market rallied about 9 more months while in 2008 the market on rallied 2 months before it dropped.
In 2011 the market rallied 10.91 the first month and 10.46 the second month. But from the first to the second month there was really no change-in fact there was a slight drop. So where does the 2011 5 event take the market next. It is a 50/50 chance using this data- in 2008 the market was lower in 2001 the market was higher. December is traditionally an up month too so seasonality is on the bulls side to get another up month.
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