Regular TA had been good in a two way market. But in a one way market it has failed miserably. And yet we are looking for an advance look into the future. All sorts of obscure and unheard of models are going round. One of such model is Lindsay’s Three Peak and Domed House. There are people who have made a career out of it by writing book on it, giving lectures and writing newsletters. Personally, I think it is something like Elliot Wave where you can make the wave counts fit after things have happened. The 3PDH goes like this:
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Equities Testing Resistance (by Springheel Jack)
If we were not in a very strong uptrend, I would have loaded the boat up short on SPX yesterday, as the bearish reversal setup there is really very nice indeed. The candlestick setup I was looking at yesterday suggested we might see a slightly higher high, which we've seen. Over the last two days rising wedge resistance on SPX has been hit at the high on both days. A Vix Sell (equities) Signal triggered on Wednesday and confirmed yesterday. Decent negative divergence on the 60min and very much on the daily while overbought on both. It really is a nice setup.
We are in a strong uptrend though and in strong uptrends bear reversal setups can fail repeatedly. That gives some reason for caution here. Another reason for caution is that short term swing tops on SPX have been taking quite a while lately, and the last one just trickled up my resistance trendline for a couple of weeks before the modest subsequent reversal.
