Further to my last weekly market update, here is a summary of where money flow ended for Week 2 of March, 2012.
The Weekly charts below of YM, ES, NQ & TF show that the YM, ES & NQ all made a lower close than the prior week (with the NQ closing on slightly higher weekly volumes). The TF made a higher weekly close at a former resistance level. The NQ remains above its upper channel after this past week's retest. Price on the YM, ES & TF remain inside the uptrending Weekly channel…although the TF did pierce below the bottom of the channel briefly during the week.
At the moment, this uptrending channel is holding as support and direction for the Weekly timeframe. Secondary support levels lie at the middle Bollinger Band (12336 for YM, 1285 for ES, 2404 for NQ, and 765 for TF).
The three Daily charts below depict support and resistance levels on the percentage of Stocks Above 20-Day, 50-Day, and 200-Day Averages.
Stocks Above 20-Day Average continued their break down to the 20% level and bounced to close below the prior 60% support level…one to watch to see if it holds as resistance.
Stocks Above 50-Day Average continued their break down to the 50% level and bounced to close below the prior 70% support level…also one to watch to see if it holds as resistance.
Stocks Above 200-Day Average broke down to the 60% level and bounced to close below the prior 70% support level…also one to watch to see if it holds as resistance.
The closing levels on all of these three charts are higher than the prior week. I'd conclude that, in the short and medium term, stocks remain mildly bullish, and in the longer term, stocks remain bullish. However, they are still subject to a retest of their bounce levels…ones to watch for such a scenario.
The VIX fell by 5.21% this past week, as shown on the graph below. Please see the comments in my prior post of March 9th as related to major volatility resistance on the SPX:VIX ratio.
As shown on the graph below of the Industry Groups, the major loser was Gold/Silver…one to watch for either continued weakness or a bounce next week.
As shown on the graph below of the Major Sectors, Technology and Consumer Discretionary led the advance…ones to watch for either continued strength, or signs of weakness.
As shown on the graph below, small gains were made by the S&P 500 Index and the Financials ETF (XLF), as well as the Chinese Financials ETF (GXC). Large losses were made in the Agricultural ETF (DBA), and the European Financials ETF (EUFN). (Additional important details on XLF and EUFN are contained in my prior post of March 9th). Minor losses were made in the Commodities sector and in the Emerging Markets ETF (EEM)…as an aside, a bullish 50/200 moving average Golden Cross has formed on the Daily timeframe of EEM…one to watch for either confirmation of continued strength, or a failure and pullback.
With respect to China, I'd note that data released Friday night shows a huge drop in their Trade Balance for February (thanks go to a fellow trader, BDI, at Tim Knight's Slope of Hope for the alert on this information). As it's the lowest number to come out since 2000, and if it's not a mistake, it will be worth keeping an eye on the China Shanghai Index to watch for any reaction during the coming week…and on the U.S. Major Indices, EEM, and GXC.
As shown on the graph below, the S&P 500 slightly outperformed Gold, WTI Oil, Copper, and Silver, while Brent Crude Oil made the largest gains…all worth watching, particularly with respect to any reaction to the China news.
As shown on the graph below of the Major Indices, the Russell 2000 Index gained the most, while the Dow 30 lost the most…two to watch during the coming week(s)…particularly with respect to any break with confidence of the lower channel on the Weekly charts of the YM & TF, as mentioned above.
As shown on the currency graph below, the U.S. $ gained the most, followed by the Canadian $. The British Pound lost the most, followed by the Aussie $ and the Euro. (Additional important details on the U.S. $ and Euro are contained in my prior post of March 9th).
Enjoy your weekend!