This bull market is never going to end, is it? Christ.
Anyway.
I did enter the day with some longs, one of the cleaner ones is shown below.
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Fragile Uptrend and Greek Default (by Springheel Jack)
Obviously I was very pleased that my roadmap for ES yesterday played out almost exactly. Will this continue on to my bullish IHS target? Possibly, but the uptrend looks fragile here, and ES will need to break over yesterday's high soon and confidently to confirm that bullish scenario. Strong support isn't far below, and a break below that support would make the current picture on equities start to look very short term bearish indeed. Here's the setup as I see it on the ES 60min chart, and I have now switched to the June contract on ES, so the values are all 5.75 handles lower than on yesterday's charts:
My Favorite Result of the Jobs Report So Far
Choose Your Side
Now that the Greek PSI nonsense is behind us (rolls eyes), the event-of-events is the jobs report Friday morning. Even if I knew precisely what the data was going to be, I wouldn't know what to do with it. A blowout huge jobs report could, on the one hand, cause the market to soar because of the recovering economy and could, just as easily, crash the market since it would make the prospect for QE3 even more remote. Or we could see both reactions within the first fifteen minutes of the report's release.
I intended to share an event split of bullish and bearish index charts, but I had a lot easier time finding bearish ones (imagine that!) Let's start off with some bullish arguments.
First up in the NASDAQ composite, which has done a yeoman's job staying above its breakout level of about 2890. Even during Tuesday's plunge, the index didn't even come close to threatening to pushing below that level. The breakout implies a rise to over 3,100.
Told You So (by BBFinance)
Pardon me for saying that. But I have been writing for the last few days not to short the market and that whipsaw is expected. I wrote that such a strong up-trend will not turn on a dime and it will re-test the highs. So it did yesterday and today. I think it will make one last effort to break the 1378 mark and then roll over. For the bears, the good news is the previous high has not been broken and we are on track for 1-2-3 trend change. By the way, the cycle high was between March 6-9. So tomorrow may be the ultimate fade date.
