Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Chart on Weakening Dollar & Commodities (by Mike Paulenoff)

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Both the Dollar Index (DXY) and the Commodity Index (CRB) are approaching critical technical inflection points. However, it is the position of the CRB (lower chart) that is of most concern.

Let's notice that the CRB has been under pressure for the last three weeks and appears to have decisively violated its 3-year support line en route to a retest of its Q4, 2011 Double Bottom at 292-293. This level must contain forthcoming weakness to avert downside follow-through towards the 250-247 target area, a 15% decline that could reflect a global economic slowdown with deflationary implications.

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Show Me Evidence of Improving Economic Conditions

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I keep hearing talk of improving economic conditions in the U.S., but Thursday's data shows a decline in Existing Home Sales, Philly Fed Manufacturing, and the CB Leading Index, as shown on the graphs below. Add to these, Monday's data release showing a further decline in the NAHB Housing Market Index, as shown on the graph below.

Show me evidence, other than the unabated rise in the stock markets since last October, that conditions are actually improving. As I mentioned in my post of April 16th, I'll be keeping a close watch on the U.S., European, and Chinese Financials over the next weeks.

Additionally, Thursday's data release shows a decline, once again, in Europe's Consumer Confidence, as shown on the last graph.


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Gold Stocks & Treasury Yield Relationships

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There is no way to put lipstick on the pig that is the fact of HUI's failure below important support at the 475-500 zone.  But the fact is that the HUI has benefited from a rising yield curve (panel 2) and a declining long term yield (panel 3, AKA our biggest picture of an ongoing deflationary need to correct or 'the Continuum', which is periodically met by policy makers' inflationary actions).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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