From last Wednesday:
……and based on news two days later…….
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
China’s Manufacturing PMI is a Mystery
Will the correct Chinese Manufacturing Data please present itself? As shown on the graphs below, two data releases made on March 31st show widely differing results even though the first one (CFLP Manufacturing PMI) mentions that it's "tightly correlated" with HSBC Manufacturing PMI.
Perhaps Asian market reaction Monday morning will shed some light as to which one is correct.
Mixed Signals Overnight (by Springheel Jack)
The immediate picture was looking distinctly bullish at the open of the overnight session, with a sloping IHS breaking up on ES, bonds looking bearish and EURUSD seemingly poised to break up. Some of that bullish picture is intact, but ES retraced to trash the IHS and break initial rising support, so the overall picture is in doubt. ES has established a rising channel from last Thursday's low at the overnight low so far and as long as that channel holds I'm leaning bullish, with a break over declining resistance at 1408.75 needed to confirm that the short term trend is still up. On a move below channel support at 1401.5 I would lean bearish and see where that goes today, with a break below Friday's low at 1395.75 opening up a test of Thursday's low in the 1386 area:
On the SPX 15min chart I have a provisional rising channel established from the March 7 low at Thursday's low, and a break below that would look bearish. I have that support in the 1397 SPX area. One interesting thing to note on this chart is how Thursday's low was a perfect retest of the declining channel / bear flag that broke up on Monday morning. If we do see a break downwards today I would be looking for the next low to be signaled by positive divergence on the 15min RSI, as that has been working very well over the sideways action over the last few days:
iShop Until iDrop…………..Evil Plan 49.0 (by BDI)
First of all, my fellow Slope-a-Dopes, I want to sincerely apologize to everyone, for my pathetic drama queen melt down display of last week. Let's just say, I obviously snapped after I saw the market perform yet another victory lap dance, as soon as Benny Bigbucks announced that he would be handing out more free viagra laced Benjamins at "The Sniper", a famed Vegas strip joint. As you well know, 2012 has been an absolute debacle for me. I feel much like the desperate, least attractive girl with the smallest tits, sitting alone at a table in the dark smoke filled corner, who gets zero action from even the horniest customers at the club.
Wave Analysis on USD’s Declining Pattern (by Avi Gilburt)
The USD is still following the Elliott Wave script that we have laid out over the last several months. In fact, it has followed that pattern almost to the penny over these months. Currently, most indications point to the USD continuing to follow this same pattern, targeting much lower levels in the months ahead.
Two weeks ago, I wrote the following:
If you listen to many of the market analysts discussing the dollar and its relationship to the metals or the equity markets, it seems as though there is much confusion. The confusion is due to the seeming “correlations” between the dollar and “risk” assets that are no longer holding true. In fact, many were expect that a rally in the USD would coincide with a decline in the metals and the equity market. But, we have recently been witnessing a break within these correlations.
It is for this reason that I continually stress that each chart MUST be analyzed on its own, and it is faulty analysis to base a significant amount of your analysis of a particular chart purely on what another chart is doing. This leaves an analyst in a befuddled state when the seeming correlations disappear just as easily as they initially appeared. This is what is now happening to many in the financial world, as they scramble to figure out what is happening.”
