NYMO or the McClellan Oscillator has hit a very low point -hitting -103 today. This does not happen to often, the last time was November 23rd.
Below is a chart of the return of SPY 1 day after NYMO was below 100 from October
2009-Today: From the middle of 2009 to now, 4 out of 9 times the market was up the next day after NYMO was below 100. With the highest being 4%. 5 out of 9 times the market closed down, the lowest was -6.5%
1. 2.14 % 3. 4.04% 5. 1.47% 7. -6.51% 9. -.19%
2.. -1.49% 4. -3.78% 6. -.14% 8. 4.65%
2007-2009: Of course from 2009 to present is not enough of a sample size, so we can extend this out to 2007-2009, again this occurred 9 times. 5 out of 9 times SPY was positive the next day, and 4 out of 9 it was negative.
1. -1.97 % 3. -2.52% 5. -2.43% 7.5.40% 9 .2.14%
2.. 1.56% 4. -6.99% 6. 14.52% 8. 3.80%
In total since 2007 this event has happened 18 times, of which 50% of the time the next day is up and 50% of the time the next day is down. This means neither bulls nor bears have a an edge.
But looking at these charts one can see, the NYMO below -100 does not market a bottom. In fact the market moves lower after a NYMO below -100.
Here are the returns of SPY 10 days after NYMO goes below -100, out of the 18 times 12 times the market is lower 10 days later:
2009-Present: 6 out of 9 times the market was down 10 days later
1. 5.50% 3. -1.93% 5. -.66% 7. -6.20% 9. 6.34%
2. -4.79% 4. -.94% 6. -4.78% 8. .42%
2007-2009: Again 6 out of 9 times the market is down 10 days later.
1 .-1.78% 3. -4.17% 5.1.09 7. 16.54% 9. 5.50%
2. -.29 % 4. -7.05% 6. -1.65% 8.-8.76%
2009-Present 2007-2009
