Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

When to Short Miners Again?

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The "call" I am probably most proud of – – and the one which has benefitted me the least! – – has been my loud and persistent declaration to short miners. In the face of an army of precious metals kooks and email-sending weirdos convinced that gold was heading to $5,000 per ounce, I stood by my miners bearishness, and it's obviously been screamingly correct.

But with miners on the mend, when do we go in for the kill? After all, my analog holds that the majority of the plunge remains in front of us.

To help answer this question, I present a very simplistic view of the first instance; we have the peak in green, the first drop in blue, and the bounce in magenta. It's the magenta figure we want to know for the present GDX.

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200 DMA Analysis (by Springheel Jack)

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Some of you may have been wondering why I have been so interested in the SPX 200 DMA as we have traded in this area, and also why I have remained interested even after support there has clearly broken. Moving averages aren't trendlines however, and a break of a moving average doesn't perform in the same way as a break of a trendline. I've done a chart looking at the SPX and the 200 DMA over the last four years to illustrate this. 

Since the start of 2009 the 200 DMA on SPX has been hit from above or below fifteen times. Ten of those times were tests, and five were breaks with conviction. Of the five breaks, only the break on the move up from the 2009 low happened without at least one clear test of the 200 DMA before the break, though the test in 2010 was the flash crash of course, which wasn't a normal test. Of the ten tests, six were clear short-term breaks of the trendline, and in those cases the test didn't generally move more than twenty to thirty points below the 200 DMA and the 200 DMA was recovered within a week. On the five breaks with conviction the 200 DMA was not more than tested again before there was a definite change in trend. 

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Shanghai Stock Index at Critical Support

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The Daily chart below of the Shanghai Stock Index shows that price closed on Monday just above a major (and recent) support level of 2300. It is trading below both the 50 and 200 smas, which may or may not cross to form a bullish “Golden Cross.” However, in the meantime, the RSI, MACD, and Stochastics indicators have hooked down again on increasing downside momentum.

A break with conviction below 2300 could send this index down to the next support level of 2250, and subsequently 2150…one worth watching overnight to see where it closes on Tuesday and for the days/weeks ahead to gauge its influence (if any) on price action on the U.S. Major Indices.

 

31 Habits Of Wealthy Traders (by Market Sniper)

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While relaxing on a Saturday afternoon, doing some market related work, I thought I would pass this on to my fellow traders on The Slope.

A while ago, I listened in on a video done by Tim  Bourquin who has interviewed hundreds of successful  traders. He has distilled some excellent points here that he keeps hearing over and over again. Said in different ways but the messages are the same. Here are actually 31 "habits" and in a few instances I have added a few comments to them. Some over lap as well. You would do well to incorporate these "concepts" into your trading. Tim Bourquin has done some excellent work in the area of trader psychology and great interviews with superior traders. You might want to visit his site. Here is a link to his latest work.  

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