Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Santa Bear Comes to Town (by Phantomcapital)

By -

The Santa Claus Rally, yet another delightful story told to
the public by retail brokers, CNBC, and the rest of the warm and fuzzy spin
doctors of Wall Street.  But what happens
when the market wakes up and realizes that Santa, like the Easter Bunny and the
Tooth Fairy just isn’t real, but instead is something made up to make the kids
feel cozy and force the adults spend even more money? 
No this isn’t a bitter rant but instead a very real point that needs to
be made about the direction of the market over the next few months. 

First, here is the bear case for why the market can and will
go down.  First, tomorrow’s FOMC announcement.  I’m not exactly sure what Helicopter Ben can
say to further juice this rally. 
Anything short of the Fed announcing a bajillion dollars for every good
little boy and girl will either be a non-event or a disappointment.  Next, the Grinch masquerading around as the
Fiscal Cliff. 

The rally over the last
month has been in anticipation in the Fiscal Cliff being resolved.  So its resolution has already been baked into
the market.  Or, our glorious leaders
will do what they always do and fail in epic fashion to solve the problem.  Either letting the Fiscal Cliff pass with no
resolution or Obama ramming higher taxes through will be incredibly
bearish.  So again, the bears are in a “heads
I win, tails you lose” situation.  And
then lastly, there is my post, Bear Market Holiday Sale posted on November 19th.  That is what I’d like to discuss further. 

(more…)

Bullish Setup and FOMC Day (by Springheel Jack)

By -

In my last post of November, as NDX last approached 2700, I posted a chart talking about short term negative divergence on the NDX 60min chart and the possibility that a high quality IHS could form with 2700 resistance as the neckline and a target at 2900, over the current 2012 highs. There was obviously a not entirely dissimilar setup on the SPX chart but I dismissed that as the neckline started too early in the preceding decline to make it a reliable pattern in my view. Here is that NDX chart that I posted on 30th November:

(more…)