I’m a reversals specialist, and on a multi-timeframe basis I chart trendline, pattern and RSI reversal setups that work well. I’m good at what I do. However on an intraday basis the first question of the day is always whether it might be a trend day. On a trend day all reversal setups become worthless, bearish patterns deliver tiny declines if they deliver at all, every counter-trend reversal setup, however good on other days, stops working, and there will generally be no setups in the direction of the trend because the retracements are too small to form them. That is the power of a strong trend.

On larger timescales these trends can last months or even years, and while in the grip of these strong impulse waves my smaller reversal setups and intraday reversal setups work just fine, as they are too small relative to the trend to be strongly affected. However I then get the same problem with my daily, 60min and 15min charts as I get with my intraday charts on trend days. Time after time very nice reversal setups will setup and the trend steamroller will squash them flat. A strong impulse wave up will roll straight over anything in its path until it ends, and must be respected. (more…)