Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Push Up or Shut Up

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I’m a reversals specialist, and on a multi-timeframe basis I chart trendline, pattern and RSI reversal setups that work well. I’m good at what I do. However on an intraday basis the first question of the day is always whether it might be a trend day. On a trend day all reversal setups become worthless, bearish patterns deliver tiny declines if they deliver at all, every counter-trend reversal setup, however good on other days, stops working, and there will generally be no setups in the direction of the trend because the retracements are too small to form them. That is the power of a strong trend.

On larger timescales these trends can last months or even years, and while in the grip of these strong impulse waves my smaller reversal setups and intraday reversal setups work just fine, as they are too small relative to the trend to be strongly affected. However I then get the same problem with my daily, 60min and 15min charts as I get with my intraday charts on trend days. Time after time very nice reversal setups will setup and the trend steamroller will squash them flat. A strong impulse wave up will roll straight over anything in its path until it ends, and must be respected. (more…)

That Not-So-Fresh Feeling

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Back in March 1995, my wife and I flew down to Austin to attend the wedding of a friend. While 0522-marketthere, I went into a grocery store (probably to get us some snacks) and was amazed. It was the first time I had ever been in a really nice grocery store. Sure, I had been in places like Safeway dozens of times, but this one was really……….nice. This was years before chains like Whole Foods were well known. I don’t remember the name of the small chain down in Austin, but everything was so well-organized, tasty looking, and clean. I never wanted to set food inside a Safeway again. (more…)

For-Profit Education Bombs Again

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From early 2009 to early 2013, for-profit education firms (the kind that you see advertise constantly on daytime television, such as ITT Technical Institute) were getting firebombed. It was one of the few sectors that was persistently weak during the roaring bull market. Weirdly, these stocks recovered mightily through 2013 and into the beginning of this year. Why, I’m not sure – – perhaps a naive notion that these firms could “retrain” workers for better jobs? Who knows. In any case, the bear market in this sector has returned with a vengeance.

0522-itt (more…)