Here is today’s swing-trading watch-list:
Long Apple (AAPL)
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
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Candidate Top Take #24
Greetings from the New Forest (established 1079 AD) in Hampshire, UK. The scenery and weather are lovely, and my internet connection is very slow, so I have been taking some genuine time off to relax rather than following the markets too closely. Things are looking interesting though so I thought I’d take some time today to do two posts, one on equities and the other later on on bonds, precious metals etc.
On equities SPX made a marginal new high last week and has pulled back sharply from that setting up a possible short term double-top. This isn’t the first time this has happened in recent months, so there isn’t much to get excited about as yet, but the overall setup favors at least some more downside this week, so I thought I’d have a look at that today. On the daily chart SPX tested the lower band on Friday and has gone lower this morning. There is double support in the 1956 area at the intersection of the lower band and broken wedge resistance, and primary support is at double-top support at 1952. A conviction break below double-top support would target the 1914 area. SPX daily chart:
Crossroads
These last two weeks feels like a change in trend is coming. My signals are firing and failing, and I must step down in time frames to squeeze out profits. From a macro perspective it seems to make sense, the heroin from the FED is slowly drying up, and the Fed to SPY ratio says that SPY already hit the theoretical price that the final Fed Balance sheet will reach.
Volatility has refused to go down, and the dollar is up, which informs me that big money is getting defensive and this takes another funding source away from the index algos.
Small caps and commodities are struggling, and gold, silver, and miners are trying to reestablish themselves but no big moves so far. (more…)
