Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

Longs? Yeah, Longs……

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1013-longsI’ll start by being very, very clear: I think the nature of the market has utterly changed (and I’ve been saying this for weeks), and the bull market nonsense is, thank Jesus almighty, finally dead.

There will be countertrend rallies, however. I intend to remain very short on positions I like, but I have no ETF shorts right now. I’ve bought carefully-selected longs this morning. Please take note of the list on the left.

I’ve already been burned once by XOP (and, as I type this, I’m getting slightly singed again), but if there’s going to be a bounce, I think energy items like XLE, XOP, and ERX are going to skyrocket.

For my slower readers: any bounce is just a bounce and not a trend change. The bulls are screwed and tatooed. But what the bears absolutely need are these occasional counter-trend rallies to keep these criminal psychopaths with the mindset that there’s still hope left for a perpetual uptrend.

The Badgers Are Getting Angry

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I remember a trader describing some of the days with really wild swings in the 2011 pullback as angry badgers days, and that has stuck with me since as an oddly appropriate way to describe wild days with big declines and strong rallies as the markets head lower in a strong downtrend. After Friday, and looking at indices around the world, there is every reason to think that we are in another strong downtrend here, and if that’s right then all longs are now very dangerous and all rallies should be shorted until SPX reaches the 1800 target area where it may find support.

On the daily chart SPX put in a fourth day of the second lower band ride from the highs, and put the low in at the test of the 200 DMA, and slightly above main double-top support at 1904. On a sustained break below 1904 the double-top target would be in the 1789 area and I’m not seeing much reason to think that target wouldn’t be made. SPX daily chart: (more…)

Double-Top Rejection at Triple-Fibonacci Resistance for Japan’s Nikkei Index

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It’s been awhile since I wrote about Japan’s Nikkei Index (NKD)…July 31st at this link.

After an initial drop at the right shoulder of a Head and Shoulders formation that was in play at the time, price rallied and has, once more, pulled back at the confluence of a double-top price level and triple-Fibonacci resistance level, as shown on the following Weekly chart.

Failure to hold its current level of 15,000 could, potentially, send price tumbling to around the 13,700 major support level, or even 12,600. Alternatively, watch for any increase in volumes on rallies…otherwise they may simply be dead-cat bounces, as has been the case since November of 2013.