S&P 500 at Quarter-End Crossroads

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Today the Emini S&P 500 should provide clues as to whether or not yesterday’s low at 1861.00 represented a significant corrective low off of the Sept 17 Fed High at 2011.75.

As of this moment, my pattern work shows a near-total traverse of the bearish down channel carved out since mid-Sept.

From a purely technical perspective, the dominant trend remains down, and will continue to do so, unless, and until, the back of the downtrend is violated– first with a climb above resistance lodged between 1906, and the upper-channel boundary line, now at 1915, and thereafter, with a climb above the prior major recovery-rally peak at 1951.00– to confirm that a major-trend reversal has occurred.

For the time being, if we have to label today’s strength, I see it as a relief or recovery rally within a developing May-Sept bear trend.