Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

White is Black

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The NFP numbers knocked it out of the park, and a December rate hike from almost nothing to slightly more than nothing now looks likely. For the moment that looks bearish, though a barely perceptible token rate hike from a Fed stuffed with doves is a little hard to take seriously, and may not remain bad news for long.

In the short term I have the move from the high as a falling megaphone and there are three main options here which I have laid out on the chart. From here with the ES low at 2083 the main remaining options are to either break back up to retest the high, or to break down from the megaphone into a target area in the 2040-50 range. I’m leaning towards the bear option with a trend down day, but keeping an open mind. SPX 15min chart:

151106 SPX 60min Rising Wedge Topping Process

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Good Morning!

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Just a comment cleaner as we await Jack. As you all know, the jobs report was a blow-out, which apparently has yielded a “good news is bad” reaction from the market. For the third day in a row, crude is getting demolished, and thus my commodity- and energy-oriented shorts are doing dynamite. My only loser zone was banks, which I covered promptly at the open. A great day so far! Bring it on!

Silver Long

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Silver has been battered in the last 6 days, together with Gold, 6 days down in a row. It is not impossible to see it going lower, but once a price move overshoots in one direction at one point it stops and it retraces back. This is the core of our analysis: to identify through a statistical complex model where the ride ends, where a market reaches the limits of its current price move and reverses (sometimes temporarily) its trend direction.SLV

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