Here’s today’s swing-trading watch-list:
Long Analog Devices (ADI)
Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Northy’s Amazing Analog
You may not believe it, based on the silly skirmish we had a couple of years ago, but Northman Trader and I are constant chat companions. (On days like this, he’s the only person who’s able to keep me from going totally insane). He’s been following an analog for a while which has been amazing in its prescience. Here it is (click on it for a large version).
Of course, my hope at this point is that the analog keeps working. In any case, thank you to Northy for allowing me to share this image.
Just The Stats Ma’am
I saw a very interesting stat last week and I’ll talk about that first this morning. The stat was at marketwatch.com and you can see the article here. I’ve been looking hard at this and have a few comments to add in the current instance.
I would say first that I have not checked whether the statistic itself is correct and am assuming that the bare facts that these series have only occurred at these times since 1970 are correct. I think that is a reasonable assumption however, so am proceeding on that assumption unless I receive strong evidence to the contrary.
I have no issue with the basic conclusion with the article, that a series like this is found at or near the end of a decline, that it means that extensive further downside this year is unlikely, and that, with less confidence, the odds favor SPX being higher in a year than it was at the 1930 level reached at the close on 17th February, which was the last of this three day series in 2016, are pretty good.
Weakening Pulse
I suspect a lot of bulls, heartened by the big overnight reversal in the ES, are slapping each other on the back, doing each other’s hair, and planning some antique furniture shopping later. I would quiet like to point out one thing, though, and let us collectively ponder it for a moment this morning. It’s not a long pattern, but worth noting.
