For a change, I’m actually looking forward to the weekend. It’ll be nice to wake up and not worry about the ES is doing. All the same, the market will return on Monday, so we might as well eyeball a few charts. I’ve decided to look at intraday charts this time, and in simple line style, to get a different perspective.
Interest rates have been strong most of July, but so far, this could just be another “lower high” in a pattern that has been in place for many, many years.
Crude oil is a tougher read. I’m very pleased it dropped on Wednesday morning, and all the trendlines are intact, but it’s just kind of hanging out at $46 and not doing anything. It needs to smash past 44.50 so we can get the energy bear party going again.
I’m still feeling good about my bullish disposition on gold. It seems to be systematically constructing stairsteps for itself. We’ve got about a fifty buck pullback, but over the long haul, I think precious metals are going to make clear how perverse central banker thinking is.
More important than anything else, of course, is the ES whose bullish breakout remains fully intact. A pullback to about 2130 would be a cinch without doing any damage. It’s going to take a failure beneath that trendline to even consider a more meaningful bout of weakness. I must say, though, it seems everyone is screamingly bullish these days (just look at the VIX which went sub-teens this week!).
The Euro is headed lower, I think. Who knows where things will be with Turkey by the time trading re-opens, but on the whole, I think Europe is in trouble.
Lastly, as I’ve mentioned in several posts, my view is that the strength in the US dollar versus the Yen is about to reverse, and that will make it feasible for the one or two surviving equity bears out there to make a buck next week.
