Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

The Rising Wedge Breaks Down Hard

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The SPX rising wedge broke down slightly yesterday and then followed through hard this morning. I have a minimum target at the 38.2% fib retracement in the 2280 area. However I would normally expect to see a topping pattern at a high like this and while there is some potential for an H&S to form, I’d note that about 70% of SPX significant highs are made with double tops, so we may well still see an ATH retest before the main decline begins. If we are to just see a move to 2280, and that is going to be set up with a double top, then the obvious place to see the rally to the second high start would be in the 2340-50 area, and I have drawn in a couple of possible bull flag support trendline options for that. The first one has been tested at the current low today. The hourly RSI 14 sell signal has made target but no positive divergence yet. SPX 60min chart:

170321 SPX 60min

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Gap and Crap

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It’s been an, ummm, busy morning. This is the most profitable day I’ve had in a LOOOOOOOOOOONG time, and every single one of my 71 short positions (even the ones I opened today) are in the green.

Every. Single One.

I’ve got to update my stops, but in the meantime, here’s NVidia, which I just shorted today. It covered its gap, and it’s insanely overvalued. See ya later, Slopers.

0321-nvda

Shrodinger’s Tortoise Race

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Everyone knows the story of the story of the race between the tortoise and the hare, but what if the race had been between the tortoise and another tortoise? Which tortoise would have won the race? The answer is that no-one would know, as no-one would have remained awake until the end of the race. Moving sideways into quantum mechanics for a moment, one could then argue that in the absence of an observer, with the arguable exception of the tortoises, that neither tortoise won the race, if indeed there had been a race at all.

Where am I going with this? I’m just observing that the market tape has been impressively dull lately, and that it will be nice when things speed up a bit, at the end of this seemingly endless topping process. In that regard though, things are at least moving along a little.

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