Short-Term Phase-o-rama

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My head’s in a bit of a whirl for a couple of reasons. First, I had a long meeting about overhauling good old Slope. That’s always a fun, creative exercise. Second, I enjoyed my second Blue Bottle coffee of the day during the same meeting, which is probably too much caffeine for my dainty constitution.

Anyway, just to share some thoughts on where the market stands………

0816-es

I have taken the liberty of color-coding what I see as the regular phases of recent market activity:

MAGENTA – a modest drop in the market (where I get mildly excited);

GREEN – a recovery of a portion of the recent loss, and people are wondering if the high is in yet or not;

CYAN – off the new lifetime highs! The market blasts past the recent drop and quickly makes it a memory;

…..and then the cycle repeats.

The question in my mind, of course, is whether we’re going to get another CYAN or not…….or if…….uh-oh, here come those words……..it’s different this time. As of this moment, the ES is down 4, but that won’t mean anything until tomorrow is over (and Friday as well, I suspect). My money is on a break to this uptrending sine wave.

One other item I’d strongly suggest watching is gold. We’ve been making a series of lower highs. If gold makes an obscene gesture to this pattern and rips past, say, $1310, we’ve got a very different ball game on our hands.

0816-gold

On a sad note, here in Palo Alto yet another young person killed themselves. No one has released the name, but someone somewhere is privy to this information and has updated this grim tally of the victims. I do not want to even imagine the crushing heartache the parents are experiencing, or what the young man was going through. All the city has done about it (for years now) is posted these bored-out-of-their-mind “guards” up and down the train tracks to try to prevent kids from jumping in front of CalTrain. That isn’t the solution, people, especially not at $400,000 a year.

My mind wanders.

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