Slope of Hope Blog Posts
Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.
Muy Caliente!
Here’s a short I’ve got that I don’t think I’ve ever shared before…….
China’s Shanghai Index Remains Trapped
China’s Shanghai Index remains firmly ensconced in a large sideways consolidation zone in between major resistance at 3368 and major support at 3000, as shown on the following monthly, weekly and daily charts.
The momentum indicator is below zero on the monthly and weekly timeframes, and is just above it on the daily. In the short term, watch for a hold above zero on any rally that may continue from tonight’s action following on from President Xi’s speech to the BOAO Forum for Asia which finished a short time ago.
The Arena
Here’s how I picture the equity markets at the moment: there’s a large indoor arena. There are two opponents: a bull and a bear. And there’s a ball that they’re trying to hang on to (or steal from the other, if they don’t have it). And not just any ball. An exploding ball. The ball explodes when there’s a big piece of news, and when it does, the opponent is able to wrest it away from his opponents.
Oh, and the arena is pitch black except for some frantically-active strobe lights.
With that image in mind, you can see how things have been since January 26th. Just absolute chaos, with no one the clear winner. The bulls have the ball but then BOOM! the news hits about tariffs on $100 billion in goods. The bears snatch it away but then BOOM! Mnuchin assures them it’s just a negotiation, and everything is going to be fine. Uh-oh BOOM! the offices of Michael Cohen get raided, so the bears get the ball back. And, instantly, BOOM! the head of China issues a soothing speech, allowing the bulls to take control again. (more…)
A Fearsome Loss!
After the market closed today (Monday), I saw on my news feed that Verifone Systems (PAY) had agreed to be acquired at a huge premium to its closing price, about 50% higher than the market. That’s not especially interesting news to anyone that doesn’t have a position in the stock, but I do. And it’s a short position. And that, as you might guess, is not a good thing.
I am sharing this bit of bad news as an object lesson in risk management, however. Because after I found this out, I asked myself the following questions and gave myself the following answers: (more…)
