An Election Lasting More than Four Hours

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Well, folks, the big day is finally here: the midterm elections. During normal times, midterms are quite boring, with just a handful of local issues grabbing anyone’s attention across the country. This time, however, for the first time I can remember, the midterms are perceived as a critical national mandate; a report card from the public about, more than anyone else, Donald Trump.

Before we get too worked up about what happens Tuesday night, though, let’s remember another Tuesday night two years ago, in which the NQ and ES were limit down, reacting violently to Trump’s very unexpected victory.

We can see how meaning that “first take” on the election was.

What I wanted to do was thumb through the cash indexes and point out what I consider fairly important “lines in the sand”‘ for my Omega prediction to work out the most smoothly. Now, if we violate these lines, it’s not the end of the world, but it definitely doesn’t help. But the Wednesday session could be really, really wild, so we may need to revisit these charts.

We begin with the Dow Jones Composite:

NASDAQ Composite:

The Dow 30 Industrials:


And, finally ,the Russell 2000.

I know that the nation is seized with poll results and predictions right now. Indeed, Monday’s powerful rally in defiance of AAPL weakness was because of optimism that Republicans would absolutely blow away the Democrats, and the blue wave would be a washout. Maybe. But keep in mind just how solid political predictions can be, and let’s see what happens: