I hardly ever use Fibonacci retracements on my charts, and Fibonacci arcs even less. For the crude oil continuous contract, however, I use both.
The arcs are too long-term a guide for our purposes here. I am more interested in the retracements. I noticed yesterday that we were bouncing off the underside of one of these lines, so I concluded we were more likely to go up than down, having reached resistance.
And, lo ‘n’ behold, that’s precisely what happened. Out of my 70 short positions, I’ve probably got eight that are directly related to energy, so this definitely helped. Judging from the retracements, 55.55 is the next support level, and we’re well on our way there.
As for my portfolio, I’ve goosed my positions up to 70 at this point, and I continue to love the fact we remain in a relatively low VIX environment with no panic in the air, and yet stocks just keep eroding. I’d much, much rather have a market just like this instead of some kind of scream-fest where the government thinks they have to “save” us all from ourselves, bless their hearts.