I made a point of NOT watching the ES and NQ starting yesterday afternoon, because I didn’t want to be jerked around by the nutty randomness of the markets right now. Why put my emotions through such stretching and yanking when we have no control over the outcome? At this point, we are collectively at the mercy of the emotions and cultural mores of two very different negotiating partners.
Just over the past dozen hours, senior US officials made clear they were serious about the tariffs (see magenta plunge). Surprisingly for such a face-saving culture, the Chinese delegation made plain that they were coming out to negotiate in good faith this week, as originally planned (green tint), almost erasing the entire drop. And then, drip by drip, futures sank even lower than before.
For a bit larger context, here’s the past couple of days, featuring the big plunge-a-roony from Sunday afternoon (grey tint). With all the drama and wailing and cursing, the simple fact is that we’re trading now where we were on Thursday, just a few sessions ago. So……….B.F.D.
Anyway, this week is assured to be filled with drama. It’ll be fascinating to see how it plays out in real time. Good luck to us both!